This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been 1,000 or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2025 according to the CDC case counter by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Thanks for playing. That one was an easy one.
gg
Yep. Not close .
884 cases. It’s over
It already says 800 cases on CDC website, as of April
Not going to be close. We haven’t seen 200 cases confirmed in one week even back during the peak weeks
thing is that CDC already has a backlog from last week, with cases not added that were already confirmed by state health departments
Texas only added 27, so there’s no big increase that would be required to hit 1000 by Friday
CDC is missing at least 42 cases reported over the past day. Check out the Texas report, at the bottom they added 15 cases from Upshur County as a separate outbreak, and the county said it's already 19. New Mexico didn't update because of Good Friday. Still possible to reach 1K next week but it will be very close
Tracker here says at least 842 cases. CDC will have a backlog next week. A small increase will take it to 1K [link removed]
CDC updates their page every friday. What happens to ones that are backdated? Does Polymarket know to wait?
The resolution source is the CDC tracker. They update only once a week so this Friday's update will be used to determine the outcome on Polymarket. Unfortunately, the real number of cases will likely top 1K before the end of the month, but it won't show up on the CDC website until May 2.
800
Maybe. I think Yes is undervalued. The CDC is missing a lot of cases reported by Texas today
New market https://polymarket.com/event/1000-measles-cases-in-us-before-june
Texas complete slow down, only 20 cases since apr 11. Ive cashed out.
To be fair the midweek update is always lower than the end of week update, but yeah looking grim for YES at the moment
If I remember correctly you were one of the few on the 700 market saying that in spring cases would have slow down. I was questioning why you switched your view from a No +700 to yes +1000
it will hit 1000. it's only the beginning
Only 2 updates left in april, time is not on your side unfortunately
No doubt it could be close. I think we may see a spike next week given the rate of vaccine hesitancy and new cases across the US. I would be surprised if we don’t hit 5000 cases this year.
712
The incidence rate is declining.
f***, how did you get the information before noon ? i wanted to buy the 1100 shares @60, but you bought at 11h55...
🤐
Told ya
You also have to consider the fact that if more people are sick, more people WILL get sick. Its 607 cases now, I wouldnt be surprised if we got another 120-160 more in the last week.
And [unfortunately] 72% of cases are from those who would still be in school. Even now, I think its a pretty resounding Yes.
I might be wrong but im pretty sure RFK said in yesterday's cabinet meeting that the new updated case number is 680
Thatd be crazy insider info if its true. We'll just have to see
avg weekly cases has been 75 for the last 2 months and the spreading is significantly decreasing in Texas. I don't see this hitting 1k by the next 3 updates... will have a better clue later today, anything lower than 130-50 is tragedy for yes holders.
CDC added 124 cases last Friday. I was firmly No initially, but now I'm starting to think Yes could have a real chance. Total would be 979 if cases remain at the same level, so only a small increase would take it to 1K
Yes but majority of cases are in Texas (65%) and the contagion is slowing down significantly there
The main hope right now is that a second CDC response team was deployed on Sunday and public health officials are saying that there's been quite severe undercounting of cases so far which could cause a huge spike in the CDC counter today or in the next updates.
can't find any source about statement of sever undercounting... maybe you are referring to the fact that only confirmed case are counted but it has been like this since january
[link removed]
What if cases are added for April, but over the first week of May ? Does the market resolve at the end of the month, or up to 15 days after the end of May when all the cases of measles that will have occurred during the last week of April, will have been counted?
Won't get counted
true, when the website is update, which day of the week ?
It's all about what "resolution date" means. If the bet ends at the last minute of Wednesday, April 30, then the CDC will indeed still show the cases reported on Friday, April 25, which only consider the cases that occurred before noon, Thursday 24. But, if the resolution date is Friday, May 2nd, then the CDC will have reported the cases that will have occurred before Thursday, May 1st.
What was with the dip?
The Texas Health Department reported only 24 new cases since the 4th of April. If that rate were to continue, there wouldn't be much more than 126 new cases in Texas by the end of the month and basically all of the cases have come from Texas so far.
measles to the moon
chatgpt and deepseek said it can be 90+ possibility