This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior July when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for July 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for July, and if 2024 July is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes." Note: If 2024 July is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2024 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Am I missing something? I dont see July here... [link removed].gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/[link removed]+[link removed]
Yeah you are missing something. It's the "121" at the very bottom of the month data
...was missing the refresh button.
gg
NASA gerrymandered Antarctica to fuck me
NASA cannot bring their people back from ISS with Boeing and they cannot measure temperatures, that's just what they are. Should've known it...
ggs
I told you all from the begining it would be the hottest July ever. Should have listened to me
Congrats aenews2
He's not going to suck it
thanks!
letsgo
I am now accepting donations.
They should make a new market if this was insider trading and rigged. YES or YES should be the options
So weird that the % chance jumped from 35 to 75 in a day after the data was already calculated but not published yet
why is it impossible people know how to use the data to compute the index themselves...... It's pretty much all public information just a pain in the ass
The climate nerds bought before August even started, they bought before we got more data on the 5th, and they kept buying up to official release. There was no inside trading, just much better modelling for most of the market history, and better parsing of NASA data for the last few days.
Y’all hear about global warming?
climate deniers btfo
I heard we should all thank Henry Ford for getting us out of the Ice Age
THE PROBEAVER HAD WARNED YOU NO HODLERS, WHY YOU DIDN'T LISTEN!
If somebody tells you the data is a 50/50 toss up yet are buying 80s and 90s then understand they have inside info and are just a liar
lol
I lost but it was a fun rivalry, hoping to see more such battles
2.7M vol is something I could never imagine as a pioneer of weather markets
Gg yes team! Hope to see weather markets thriving
Yeah dude they will definitely keep betting after 5 whales scammed for hundreds of thousands of dollars
@BlueSky123 Hmm, how is it a scam that some people somehow know the function they are using. Its the same as the fact that you can't reverse engineering an injective function per definition. Additionally if you find a function that gives you similar results based in historic data you first of all never know if it's actually the correct function and they could also make changes to the function weights etc. even if you had a good model nobody would have 80% confidence in the result. The chance that this is not insider trading is lower than 5% imo. Since this is a non regulated and 'scammy' website you obviously can't do shit other than not bet ever again on these markets
Yeah and also, Team Yes literally posted the results of that analysis here including the 121 estimate. Team N simply believed their analysis was better and did not trust Team Y who gave them the answer.
haha
Glad I switched yesterday and mitigated my losses
yeah this was a crazy few days it was not fun losing a few thousand but now it confirms i should not be betting on the weather
Losing once, and deciding “therefore this must not be profitable” is a big reason why you are not profitable.
ok puss
gg to the yes.