This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any prior March when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for March 2025 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for March, and if 2025 March is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2025 March is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2025 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
[link removed]
feels like a coin toss at this point... will be interesting to see.
regional markers like that def help but the final driver will be the arctic.
March apparently had the lowest arctic sea ice in 47 years
for sure, lots of ice loss, gonna be close.
when will we know for certain? 10th?
i believe so yes, 10th or 11th
Well. Why not =)
yeahhh
holy my models are looking super strong for this
gonna be really close. definitely +EV
check out the other market with ranges :)
dw i'm already locked in, wish i didn't sell half yesterday...
when will this data be updated?
10th
See this related market: https://polymarket.com/event/march-2025-temperature-increase-c?tid=1743552361782
can't believe this many people are gambling NO on 0.065C
especially if the first few days of April are anomalously warm and influence the tail-end March data
kvn. we got this.
its gonna be tight but ohhhhhh baby it's looking good.
Fr?
Fr.
Bruh its not even close 😭😭😭
[link removed] Currently a draw land-sea.. slight push up and 2025 wins
IM SO TIRED OF LOSING GAH WHAT DO I DO
Did I sell too soon?
Odds are leaning 2025 at the moment. La Nina having no impact on warmth slow on this end of month..
Next week, China will usher in a record breaking heat wave in March. From March 24 to 26, many places in central&eastern China will usher in the earliest 30C or even 35C in history, and hundreds of weather stations are expected to break the warmest record in March
Heat trend is up .74-.79 19th.
if i could bet 36 thousand dollars that you have back acne i would
Latest data on [link removed].eu/ holding at .76 uptrend. Looking like it’ll be the warmest on record if that trend continues.
March 2025 needs +0.745 degrees C for the rest of the month to beat March 2024. Recent days have been hovering around +1.70 C above pre-industrial (+0.74 to +0.76 C relative to 1991-2020)
Please buy more 🙏
i will if u will.
I get the point why you're buying
But you might be more succesful in the [link removed] march bracket 👀
You do?
Overconfidence in the accuracy
2024 and 2025 currently tied (2025 in the lead if looking at 19 day)
Aenews2 and gopfan moved to the yes side. They are among the best traders on this platform.
You seem angry.. possibly about the loss of 30,000 you’re currently sitting with?
They caused a lot of people to panic sell their position
I remember there was this one source showing march data daily so far. It was showns in a line graph. Anyone know what source this was?
[link removed].eu/
GOAT
@aenews could you share what site you are using for your prediction model?
So far so cold
So far for the 3 days, it's been hotter than last year's avg actually. Too early to know.
How on earth then is this Feb betting odds saying it will be much lower than the month before. but then, this march it will go back up? Feb being low temp is an outlier right now then
🔥🔥🔥