On July 7, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 25% reciprocal tariff to all imports from Japan beginning August 1. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 25% tariff on imports into the United States from Japan goes into effect for any amount of time by August 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 25% tariff on imports into the United States from Japan goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting Japan will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Should have bought some more shares for cheap.
There was barely any liquidity here, had around 400 shares and that made me a top no holder
Could have split and cashed in on yes sales.
The official letter sent by Trump to Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba was almost identical to the one sent to Korea, with no specific exemption clauses. Although Japan and South Korea are traditional U.S. allies, this time the political positions and leadership risks in both countries are increasing the chance of tariffs being implemented. Prime Minister Ishiba has repeatedly made strong statements during the election campaign, calling it “a fight for national interest,” while Trump publicly criticized him, saying he needs to “fix his attitude.” Despite strong pro-U.S. sentiment among Japan’s conservative base, Ishiba’s relationship with Trump has deteriorated, and he does not appear willing to compromise. After the upper house election, political instability is likely to make it even harder to quickly resolve the tariff issue. For these reasons, the probability of tariffs taking effect on August 1 may be higher than the current market price reflects.
I also believe that Japan’s upper house election results will influence the atmosphere around any tariff negotiations. However, even if Ishiba loses power, it will likely take about a week after the election to finalize the political transition. For this reason, even if a new leader emerges, there may not be enough time to reach any meaningful agreement before the deadline.