On May 25, President Donald Trump announced an extension on the 50% tariff deadline on the European Union until July 9. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 50% general tariff on imports from the European Union into the United States goes into effect for any amount of time between May 26, 2025, and July 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the 50% tariff, as announced by the Trump administration, must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. A general tariff greater than 50% will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only the 50% general EU tariff will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or specific goods (e.g., autos, steel, olive oil) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.
TACO
0.1% yield for 24h is huge
I don't get it? Didn't trump extend the deadline to August so how is this still at 93% for NO and not 99%
Should it be only 0.5? The timing is so strange
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TACO brother
True, but "For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the 50% tariff, as announced by the Trump administration, must have passed without being further delayed or suspended." - means the date can just pass without any comment and the market resolves "Yes".
Either this market, or this is completely mispriced: https://polymarket.com/event/us-eu-trade-agreement-by-july-9/us-eu-trade-agreement-by-july-9
EU 'prepared to impose countermeasures' after Trump doubles steel tariffs to 50%
I got some shares for you at 18c :)
This contract is flawed. If trump follows through on the EU tariff, it will go into effect at 12:01 July 10.
14c significantly underestimates risk of no EU deal by July 9
Then buy my shares at 15 cents :)
Just did 😉