500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?

gg

Final update. 483 cases. No wins [link removed]

13 new cases in Kansas and 10 new cases in Ohio, which is quite surprising. It might get really close but probably not enough to reach 500 by Friday

Cdc count for thursday noon. So, I think it's over. Maybe 480~90ish?

where did you get this info?

🦔

Bro was spot on

In first, I thought count till 31st. Haha

I've been as passionate about this market as anybody, but the current tally is only at 434 - I think it's mathematically impossible for the CDC to record 500 cases on Friday. It was expected that the Texas outbreak would ebb and wane but none of the other outbreaks have accelerated rapidly enough to have any chance of hitting 500 in just the next two days before the CDC takes their count at Thursday noon. GG

Yes is still undervalued right now. Looking at historical data there’s a greater than 4% chance that test results from two weeks ago come in high on Friday. Example: midweek update TX on March 11 had only +25. But the Friday update that week was +85

why are you holding no then?

All he said was the Yes was undervalued. Not that it was likely.

yes being undervalued means no is overvalued. why would you hold a bet that you know is overvalued

It would infer that he believes the market is "currently" overvalued. Not necessarily when he bought the shares at 87c

If it’s currently overvalued then the logical thing is to sell at the overvalued price

I hear ya. I did 😂

So, this market only use data from cdc at march 28? Not until 31

Yes since it is the last report before April

My count is at 407. Leaning No but it's going to be really close, especially with cases popping up in other states. Kansas is up to 10 cases now

Is that your count or are you looking at that Twitter user who is updating that Google Doc? Because her count is wrong for this market - she's tallying cases that aren't officially diagnosed, which the CDC will disregard

It’s my own count, but I guess you’re referring to the 4 probable cases in Oklahoma? You’re right that those won’t be counted by the CDC. So that would make it 403 cases

2 more cases just confirmed in Maryland [link removed]

total cases around

CNN tally reporting 404+ [link removed]

It will be close. A real crap shoot. Could go either way

378 cases, will be close. Minimum 450 for next Friday :)

We can already consider it 379. Tennessee announced their first case a couple hours after the CDC count came out [link removed]

Now 383 as Kansas just confirmed four new cases in the afternoon. You get the jist

NBC reports 393

CNN tally currently at 353+ [link removed]

This CitizenScientist guy is dumb and doesn't understand the data, but he had a good idea using wayback machine. Tracking the texas outbreak over time: 30/01-4 5/02-8 11/02-26 18/02-58 25/02-124 28/02-146 4/03-159 7/03-198 11/03-223 14/03-259 18/03-279 The Texas outbreak has clearly peaked, and it needs to increase to have any chance of hitting 500. If you look at cases outside of Texas, the only major outbreak is New Mexico, currently with 38. But if you look at the wayback machine, this has scarcely increased since they added about 25 extra cases late on 14/3. The newly added cases include people who were ill previously and were not identified until after their illness. So YES holders are now hoping for a new outbreak somewhere else in the US in the next 1.5 weeks. Don't forget this market closes when the data is released on 28/4 as well.

Sounds like Citizen scientist is pretty smart TBH. This is exactly what I’ve been saying for two weeks

Is that why you've been buying high and selling low?

I buy whatever makes sense at the time, and sell when I need to use crypto for other things,

Anyone in the US affected by GLP-1 compounders going out of business, you can buy direct from China and have it tested independently.

I would never let Noah get vaccinated.

I agree. No way I would allow the government to inject our kids with microchips. Just makes me sick.

Ars Technica estimating 339+ current cases [link removed]

Good my estimate were 355+ this is a solid no

I am with you, Beavers and Sheep strong unite

CNN estimating at least 320+ cases [link removed]

The peak week was Feb 16 and it’s been going down since then. 37 of the cases added today actually happened Feb 23 or earlier during the peak. Three weeks ago there were 11 cases from current week, two weeks ago 8 from current week. Now only 6 from current week. Are there enough cases still pending from the peak week that will roll in to hit 500 ?

You did so well making this argument in the 300 cases market too.

It’s obviously waning, look at the graph. Theres no community spread outside of Texas right now, no other outbreaks just international travel cases. It takes about three weeks for the cdc numbers to capture all of the cases in a given week, so with two weeks left it’s just a question if there have already been 500 or not quite. With only 6 new cases in Texas and 2 in NM this week I’d be concerned on yes side

There weren't only 6 new cases in Texas this week. This was pointed out in the other market too that you were positive there wouldn't be 300 cases in March.

But obviously you understand this - otherwise, you wouldn't have sold 3500 of your No's in the past few hours.

I need liquidity for something else right now, but there were indeed only 6 new cases this week. Use wayback machine to track the breakdown of cases by rash start over time. For the week of 3/9 there were 6. For last week the current week was 8. The week before the current week was 11. Your only hope as a yes holder is that there are enough cases from when this was widespread that will continue to get added to the totals. In the 300 market I didn’t realize that the cdc added numbers to prior weeks which is where rhe 300 came from. If it were just new cases then obviously this would be a just a handful of cases.

You're still not understanding CDC data. There were many more than 6 new cases this week. They will just be reported to the CDC over the coming weeks. The 300 market was obvious that we'd blow through that number. 500 will be much closer so I don't have a position either way. I'm just pointing out your data is completely inaccurate. The Texas outbreak is still spreading, and the rate of cases being reported in each new report is still increasing. The CDC only has 6 cases for this week now - it will have way more than that for this week in a couple of weeks. .

You can look up the data for yourself. At the cdc website data table under week start date Mar 9 there are 6 cases reported. Last week the current week was Mar 2, and on Friday when the report came out there were 8 cases. You’ll have to look this up on way back marchine. The week before the most current week was Feb 23. On that Friday the number of current week cases was 11. No one is arguing that the case count from weeks past continues to increase as the cdc churns through the samples. The point is that the CURRENT week case count is going down each week. So whether we hit 500 or not depends on cases IN THE PAST. People should know that when they make their bets. That’s perfectly accurate information

You do no understand the data but by mistake you are in the good side

300 ! It came hotter than expected

today will be 270-290 due to 5 day lag to new mexico and texas data

real case probably around 300-330

Real cases is probably around 2000. The death rate for measles is one for every 1000.

31 Cases in Ontario. This is gonna spread.