PoliticsMarkets
AI bubble burst by...?
December 31, 202621%
December 31, 2025<1%
March 31, 2026<1%
$2,878,069 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026$2M Vol.21%
3%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Bad rules...
Fr
Wow the odds keep increasing, but the nadsaq alao keeps puffing up higher into the atmosphere. That is completely... Illogical....but for a wyckoff distribution, is perfectly logical.
This is about to go up in price /yes for by Dec significantly..
This weekend has a very weird feel to it with these tech earnings and open ai problems. Sore video hallucinations. All that weird stuff like strawberries with a berry and straw. The Ai firms haven't fixed this problem. That was actually a reason for the first down market move from 25200 to 23500 summer 2025 support... Then we all concluded to buy the war dip and other stuff that no economist says actually make sense high oil prices are terrible for Ai. For tech. But most market participants don't know this. Yes, we've had a huge bullish move once the institutions stopped selling. People are buying for no reason, but they are, we have another bank failure, national debt a big problem, this fundamentally smells like an economic disaster but has kept meaning (???) higher prices lately for no reason.
lol, this is like free money
The rules are bullshit for the following reasons: 1. Just one of many Semi companies dropping 50% from ATH does not really mean much 2. The rental price of H100 could fall to $1 if better hardware comes out or if the computing supply increases drastically 3. The SOXX etf dropping 40% from ATH (2024 levels) could be completely unrelated to AI and instead triggered by general market downturn since semiconductors are a volatile cyclical industry The 3 of those being equal to "AI bubble burst" is ridiculous
I'd like to subscribe to more hot takes from people with 0 shares
OpenAI has dissolved Sora.
That doesn't affect the resolution of this market based on its rules
blah blah blah ediot
The biggest problem with AI foam right now is that the foam isn't big enough.
Baidu kunlunxin trained deepseek v4 so that should definitely pop the bubble
Why is OpenAI being acquired listed as a prong?
Super Micro Computer's ATH was 116 on March 07 2024 and it reached a price of 54 on August 12 2024 which was before this market was even created. Am I missing something?
Tenemos que fijarnos en el cierre del primer trimestre. (Q3)
It’s hard to understand why this market has held up this long.
Whales are still longing Nvidia and the "Bubble Burst" odds are stuck at 18%.......
liquidity is trash tho
The rules are just crazy. It's surprising that anyone actually believes that even two of these insane points can be achieved within 90 days.
Isn't Super Micro already down 50% from ATH?
yes
It is but since the market was created. 90 days have already passed so it does not count
Should adjust more period
The Big Short
AI is not a bubble
in this case you better use your money to short those stocks instead of betting yes here