United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. This market will resolve to "Peltola" if Democrat Mary Peltola wins the congressional election in Alaska's at large district. This market will resolve to "Begich" if Republican Nicholas Begich wins the congressional election in Alaska's at large district. If any other candidate wins the election, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
GG Begichbros.
"Alaska's generous absentee voting laws are not new. For years, the state has allowed voters to cast ballots by mail. As long as the ballots are postmarked on or before Election Day - and then delivered to an election office within 10 days of the election (or 15 days in the case of overseas voters) - they will be counted." Overseas votes can arrive as late as today...
The last drop should narrow the gap to about 5800 votes. There will be 16-17K RCV votes. There is one more democrat in this race and he is at about 3.5K so his votes will break heavily for Peltola. Third party votes will break tor Peltola too. She will need them to break 60-40. If she gets better than 60-40 she wins, if she gets exactly 60-40 here are some overseas votes that should put her just over.
I wouldn't say she is favor, but 98-2 is very off from reality, last drop was huge for her.
Begich is the favorite, but Peltola has a clear path to victory.
Lol
Alaska sloths can't count votes. Idiots the lot of them
Tell me you've never been in Alaska... without telling me you've never been in Alaska
I actually have
Than you'd know how hard it is to reach everyone, and how long mailing things take. Alaskan cities are very far away from each other and you'd know that, unless you've only ever been to Anchorage.
Decision Desk called it for Begich, GG [link removed]
was called too early. ranked choice could change the outcome.
START THE STEAL START THE STEAL
can they still steal it from begich?
There are still votes out there favoring Peltola. After that it's up to RCV. The RCV vote would have to skew heavily D. It always skews D, but here she needs at least 2-1. It's unlikely, but very possible. I'd say its about 70-30 for Begich.
Begich should thank Trump for somehow winning Alaska by 15. Without him, there is not a chance he would've come close
Peltola looks undervalued here. I'd give her at least 20% chance of winning.
BS
Peltola is cute bros
Peltola for the win, every vote must be counted
im not sure yall know how RCV works lol
GOP has 49 vs dems 45. So gop candidate needs only 1% of the third candidate, who is from a Conservative Party
BIG UPDATE: Nobody reaches 50% threshold - immediate run off now fully counted. 100% of the eliminated 3rd candidate's votes go to Peltola. This race is OVER.
Pettola will deliver, I can feel it in the air tonight
why is it not closed ? The stats are already out
RCV, if Begich stays below 50% and like all the 3rd party first choicers ranked Peltola over Begich then she has a chance
I think Baal missed this market.