Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by...?

If Burnham says “if I win the by-election, I will resign”, this isn’t a “Yes” under the rules as a matter of plain English or common sense. The rules deem a resignation announced before the market end date but taking effect after that date to be a “Yes”. The rules do not deem a statement that Burnham “will” - i.e., in the future - resign if a condition that may not occur to be a “Yes”. The rules state it is irrelevant when the resignation takes effect. They do not state that a resignation need not take effect at all. That would be an ineffective resignation - i.e. no resignation at all. Treating a contingent statement as a “Yes” could lead to the bizarre scenario in which Burnham is considered to have resigned for the market’s purposes, but remains in office after the contingency lapses - e.g. if he loses the by-election and so does not resign.

you guys should read the rules, "An announcement of Andy Burnham's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect", he's going to announce that he'll resign as mayor - it doesn't matter when he actually leaves the mayorlty

But the announcement can't be conditional. He can't say, "if I'm elected I will resign as mayor".

do the rules say that the announcement can't be conditional ?

read the rules

It's just common sense surely? You think if he says, "I will resign if I am elected as an MP" that will resolve as Yes?

depending on exactly how he says it, yes it will resolve yes. If he says I intend to leave as Mayor of Manchester - without a conditional that'll instantly resolve yes

even if it's implicitly conditional

I mean...looking at your track record of success - I'm probably going to regret betting against you!

Chad

This is wrong. He’s not going to stand down regardless. If he loses the by-election he’ll simply stay on as Mayor. As soon as he’s elected MP he will have to stand down, but since this is a competitive election that is not a foregone conclusion.

we'll see what comes out of his mouth - that's what this will resolve on

You're clearly a v good polymarket trader and i agree that rules are critical for these kind of markets. I just don't see how this gets to yes by the 31st May. There is precedence for people running to be an MP and Mayor at the same time. There is no reason why they'd stand down ahead of that election. It just creates a headache for Labour as then they could lose both the by-election and the Mayoral.

Think this all but confirms no - from his team. [link removed] Curious what you think about other markets though, think there might be some value in Starmer out by June 30th considering the by-election is June 16th. If Burnham wins it, you'd think Starmer would be forced to set a timetable by then...

The YES case makes no sense. Burnham will only resign after winning a seat, which won’t happen before 31 May. To resign before winning could jeopardise his political career. If he lost the by-election (which is a real risk), he would be left without a seat in Parliament and without the mayoralty. There is no legal impediment to Burnham being a parliamentary candidate. Existing Electoral Commission guidance for mayoralities with PCC functions - including Greater Manchester - merely provide that Burnham will, if he wins the seat, become disqualified from holding his mayoral office. Further, it would make no sense for the Labour Party to insist that Burnham resign as mayor as a condition for allowing him to stand. Labour are at risk of losing a Manchester mayor by-election. So insisting on resignation risks an outcome where Labour loses both Josh Simon’s seat and the Manchester mayoralty.

Correct. All the precedent is for him to stay. Boris Johnson was actually both MP and mayor of London for a v brief period.

if he says he'll leave after the election, you know that resolves to yes right? this isn't a market on when he ceases to become mayor, it's an announcement on when he announces he's leaving as mayor - which he's already done

Saying he will leave *if* he wins the election will not resolve this as a yes. Thats not the statement the rules or resolvers are looking for here.

the NEC already said he can run, so there you are

running for parliament means he's resigning as mayor lol

I know, its free money!

He will only quit if the NEC allow him to stand for Josh Simons’ seat. He has already done this routine this year with Gorton and Denton. They probably won’t block him this time though.