Another Canada election called in 2025?

We went from Trudeau resigning in Jan, to the Carney coronation in March, to a snap election in April, and now we're basically back where we started with another minority. I’m exhausted just thinking about how much we spent on that April vote just to have the same math in the House

Nope. Too expensive, too much risk for everyone. They'll cling to power until the last possible minute.

Lmao Green is flopping again.

How quiet are those poilievre trolls today lol. Mucho Satisfaisant!

I come back everyday. Sadly Kamala guy sold everything already :(

I made good money off my bet, and regret nothing.

Well it passed but we are due with an early election in this government for sure, not for this bet though.

BIB will fail. Hold.

I think the NDP will abstain but who knows, anything could happen.

Considering we are less then 24 from when the budget vote will be, and literally no one knows if it'll pass or not (including on the hill)... It really feels like everyone is fine with having an election now. The opposition collectively benefits.

Mark Carney at the Gray Cup? It’s really the kind of thing he would go to, especially on the eve of returning to the House and the budget vote...

Canadians are already worried about keeping their jobs, putting food on the table and paying rent. Carneys budget will only make this worse. We need changes based in fairness and taking care of each other. - Heather McPherson NDP MP

She then went on to create a petition to say 'no to carney's cuts' and to "add your name: we need a budget for all Canadians"

this is all on her X account.

This continues to be a bargin for the broad unpopularity of the budget, and the benefit to the NDP and Bloc of gaining seats.

Mr. Speaker, it's increasingly clear that this government's budget fails to deliver the transformational change promised and fails to meet the moment. It fails to provide any relief right now for the millions of Canadians suffering through an affordability crisis. 60% are having trouble meeting their monthly expenses. Half are using credit cards or borrowing money for daily needs, paying interest rates of 19% or more. Why did the Liberals fail to provide concrete measures to help the millions of Canadians who need help now? - Don Davies NDP Leader

[link removed]

I cant see the NDP voting with the budget after saying this.

I think they already did though didn’t they?

no, vote day is likely nov 17. What the NDP voted on were amendments that the conservatives and the bloc put forth. Nothing went through. Big vote day is nov17.

At this point if Jeneroux doesn't vote along with the conservatives, and May flips to support, the government will still collapse if NDP, BQ and the rest of the CPC vote together.

Yes thats right. Current pricing is extremely risky for effectively no return for no holders/buyers. Will be an interesting off week for HOC, hopefully more clarity soon

The election will be held in January or February.

read the rules

Speaker, it's increasingly clear that this government's budget fails to deliver the transformational change promised and fails to meet the moment. It fails to provide any relief right now for the millions of Canadians suffering through an affordability crisis. 60% are having trouble meeting their monthly expenses. Half are using credit cards or borrowing money for daily needs, paying interest rates of 19% or more. Why did the Liberals fail to provide concrete measures to help the millions of Canadians who need help now? - Don Davies NDP Leader

[link removed]

Another Canadian election in 2025 seems unlikely unless a major political crisis or shift forces an early vote, as the next scheduled federal election is set for 2025.

polymarket bettors sure are quite stupid

myself included

The price at 4% yes is simply too good.

I'd like a budget that satisfies Canadians, not one that satisfies Donald Trump. - Don Davies, NDP Interim Leader

shush

Price is too cheap for a minority government :)

stay quiet let them sell at 97 cents all the way until the nov 17 vote I still have funds on the way to dump in at these prices

The public election won't happen until January or February, even if no confidence happens on Nov 17. They wont do an election during the Christmas holidays.

someone didn't read the market rules

So true

Jeneroux resigned

Will still be there till next spring

the ndp is voting for the budget. fell for it again award!

there are 7 votes and this first one is the conservatives asking for a 42BN budget with even deeper cuts, if anything the NDP voting against cuts says a lot more if they vote for cuts tommorow!

not voting for the budget. They're just voting against the conservative amendment to it. They don't like cuts.

The only way for the budget to pass is 4 NDP abstentions, which of the 7 MPs one has said they will not abstain, one has said they will vote against, which leaves 4 of the remaining 5 NDP memebers will have to abstain. The only other options are NDP supports (end of the NDP), or two additional floor crossings, or one more crossing and two abstenstions. These are all the possible scenarios, if I missed one let me know, but the bloc isnt one, and the greens dont matter.

Possible conservative MP abstentions?

won't be voting for them again if that happens. this is a confidence matter, everyone shows up to vote and votes with party lines, as it should be. abstenstions is effectively voting for with half a vote, which is not what NDP was elected to do. i dont mind losing the money if it means the end of the ndp once and for all, let it rest with llayton.

no. it's all up to the NDP. if they vote against, budget fails, if the abstain, it passes.

I miss Singh so much already if he was there it would pass for sure and we’d all be better off