This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between October 27, ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Probs
At this point, an ‘Israeli military action against Iran’ market feels less like a prediction and more like asking if water will remain wet. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s team is probably drafting a 20-page PDF explaining why an airstrike doesn’t count if the missile had a layover. Anyway, they’ve been here before: [link removed]
Just happened
not yet
they actually attacked iran facilities but not in iranian soil
It happened TODAY
Sure did. Buy more, so cheap.
Mystery explosion in south iran reported!
no
Trump has said Israel should attack, but wants calm by the time he takes office. [link removed]
one more missile from Yemen: [link removed]
"The IDF has completed its preparations for a strike on Iran. Very tense days are ahead of us!"
Said who
beholdisrael/Amir Tsarfati
[link removed]
Does this count? It was military action on Irianian soil by Isreal acknowledged today by
He was killed on July [link removed] market timeframe is between October 27, ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.
Bots buying yes ? who is buying yes ?
U by yes
explain why would you buy yes. ill sell my car and buy yes
Iranian senior official: "We made a mistake in the war against Israel, Netanyahu will go to the end"
Most Iranians back retaliation against Israel, even if it leads to war, says IRGC official. [link removed]
Iran doing something on Dec 25 would be a way of saying a big FU to western countries
Netanyahu just quoted directly: “Oh Holy Night, my ass”
Very strong indication that this is going to happen
Bibi spoke today before the Kneset and said that they will do everthing to stop Iran from obtaining nuk weapons and other weapons that can harm Israel. Im going for a YES on this
7 days left
Now they claim iran preparing to attack [link removed]
[link removed]
If this energy crises is real, hitting the irgc hard now seems logical. [link removed]
For Israel, this is an opportune moment to strike for a variety of reasons (a weakened Iran, Houthi attacks, Israel's lack of intelligence regarding Yemen, which makes it more challenging to deal with them effectively, etc.). Among other things, it is for all these reasons that the head of Mossad recommended striking Iran.
you have 3-5 days, and it will happen ...
Israeli Mossad chief says Israel must strike Iran in response to Houthis' attacks [link removed]