Yes$40K Vol.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution. A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution. Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify. This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
scam market, "as part of its standard legislative process" is going to wreck everyone here, even the confederate states didn't use their standard legislative processes to secede, except Tennessee. They tried to do things with more durable consensus, involving the citizens and delegates. But, could be fun to trade from 6% to 30%, would be more fun if we had a better market.
Zero chance a state legislature seriously risks that chaos by June 2026. They know it's a non-starter.
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