BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?

Outcome was "NO" but maybe just maybe

Well, there might be a recount still happening, the BSW needed 13.400 votes to get in, now with the "final results" in, BSW only needs about 9500 votes. So the BSW will per law officially challenge the results and make an official complaint. As this vote is really really close, a recount is necessary in a functioning democracy!

Might be true and we will see what the court says. However for this market the official results are relevant and they say no.

What if the official results change in a few months due to court decisions of a recount?

And the recount actually benefiting the BSW and allowing it to join the parliament after all?

By law that is fine but for this market the rules are set. The official results are now out and that counts. What happens afterwards matters for democracy but nor for this market.

It says This market will resolve to Yes if The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance Reason and Justice BSW, Buendnis Sahra Wagenknecht Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit wins 5 percent or more of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election Otherwise this market will resolve to No. So unless there is still a chance for them to make it, because of laws allowing for official complaints the market cannot be resolved this early

Yes in short

Well, the official result could be changed in a way that the BSW will be part of the next parliament. As per law there are still possibilities to make a complaint about the election and therefore making changes in the official results.. you can't call the market yet. Let's say the complaints go through, there will be a recount and the BSW actually did get the 5 percent, then the official result would be changed to BSW actually winning seats in the parliament and then the market would have to resolve to Yes.

@Trolloftheswamp please go to UMA and resolve this market to NO, you were right all along

Final results are on the website 4.981%. Who is going to propose the result?

its not over until 23th april

The results are final you only can give objections but the result is final so by definition of this market it should turn to no

START THE RECOUNT!

na dont sell bro, the decision today doesn't mean anything

gg

Official end results will be out tomorrow. Although there are possibilities for objections until 23 April, this market will resolve based on these.

With all the errors, a recount via Karlsruhe should be a certainty. Everything else is cope.

Why is this so cheap.. once I get my paycheck this month I am going to buy in. Even Trolloftheswap said that the chance is 2-4%

yes but since then they found 1500 more votes already

4,98% for now, 9.529 Votes are still missing

what exactly do they have against them?

Getting this for 2 cents per share is like when you were able to buy Bitcoins for a few dollars 15 years ago

Once they annouce a recount the price is going to go to 20

Hey rugpuller, do you want to dispute the proposed outcome, because of the the official complaint the BSW will make?

Is there a deadline as to when this bet resolves? As far as I understand the constitutional law and laws on voting matters (in particular BWO, BWahlG), the BSW can and will press charges even if the Constitutional Court BVerfG will dismiss its first attempt on Friday because after the Bundeswahlausschuss approves the results the BSW can press charges again (which would be the correct timely order). Up until the decision from BVerfG then, and only then, there will be clarity. Correct me if I am wrong.

Can you resolve this market on UMA so it's over?

April 23? That may be the deadline for the protest of the official results from Bundeswahlausschuss which is what I describes as the second time before the Constitutional Court. Anyways, it will be far from over at that point. I also do not understand what you mean by leak. There has not been a recount, only single data points of corrections as of now.

Are you able to read? The rules says "The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) ([link removed] Official results will be published in next few days. Nothing in the rules says "lets wait one year for courts to proceed". You are just making things up to steal money frankly.

trollofswap seems to be into this case but actually he has no clue about what he is saying. he doesnt understand the difference between the "final result" and the the lawsuit to demand a recount. he literally thinks the new votes that appeared showed up after the recount

I don't know why people get upset so fast but who cares I'm out the news just came in there will be no recount. At least not now which is enough to resolve this bet to no. Congrats to the No-guys.

Friends, this is how I see it: 1300 votes in NRW alone (not a BSW stronghold). If every other federal state throws off 700-800 votes (including the aforementioned strongholds), it's done. I don't want to encourage anyone to do anything, but I also don't share the fatalism of others here.

NRW has about 18.2 million inhabitants, but only around 11 million are actually elegible to vote. Others are children or people that do not fulfill all requirements to be eligible to vote

Should I buy into this market while it's still under 20%?

yes! there is a good chance. there are some states like Saxony who didn't want to reveal their list of votes. That's why BSW sued today the court and demands a recount.

please ignore @trollooftheswamp....he is here for 1 month writing everyday negative thingsabout BSW

They are underproportionally representen in NRW though. Their strong provinces are in the east like saxony, etc..

very hard does not mean impossible. I think 10% chance that they can make it is fair.

I asked Grok and according to him, statistically there is around a 28.3% chance that the result deviates by more than 0.03% if you look at it from a normal distribution standpoint

If you look from BSW point of view, what do they have to lose? If they don't sue the federal court now, they are out anyways, so they will fight till the bitter end.

What kind of arguments would the other parties bring up to deny a recount? It's only 0.03% of the votes. Last election in Berlin was a mess lol

If they don't do a recount it will destroy a lot of trust in the german democracy and government, which might be irrevertible. You saw what happened in the US after Trump

But many people think there was voter fraud in the 2020 election

I'm not saying there was fraud, but a recount will probably help destroy distrust in the government

Looks like they are gonna sue the federal court and ask for a recount

They might actually do it, they already gained votes by recounting in Berlin district.