This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met: 1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2025, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
resolve please
We didn't see a proper one yet, but only because the banks kept kicking the can. Wait for the big mortgage renewal wave to fully hit in 2026. 2025 was just the warm-up
um canada is in a recession 2 quarters of negative growth = recession
Yes is quite a bit overpriced right now. Q1 was positive and Q2 is projected to be negative. This means that the bet will heavily rely on Q2 actually being negative and Q3 following being negative. Vague estimates place Q3 at flat or slight positive. Q4 is typically positive and will likely be very positive with trade opening back up. The Yes bet has some validity but relies on more variables then the No bet.
unemployment up to 7.1, im in once my paycheck clears
Fair price should be 60-70 ct.
Flame this clown harder, Relay.
I guess we weren't meant to be besties...
Last quarter was well negative, next quarter is projected slightly negative (-0.1) by Trading Economics. Hence, this market should be priced above 50 ct.
You shouldn’t have told them
It will be close. And with no tariff relief it will be hard to see where growth comes from. Government has already been spending like a drunken sailor the entire year