GeopoliticsMarkets
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
$441,106 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Yes$441K Vol.19%
4%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba. Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Buying YES now is an absolute steal. Cuba is facing a total grid collapse with 22-hour daily blackouts because the US blockade cut off its Venezuelan oil lifeline. As Izabela Pereira Watts wrote for the Lowy Institute, "by pushing the Cuban economy to the brink of a humanitarian abyss, Washington believes it can force the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) to accept a market-oriented transition in exchange for political survival." With secondary sanctions set to fully choke off the military's business arm, GAESA, and angry citizens already ransacking local party offices, the PCC's de facto control is bound to break before December 31.
yes
NO
No
It won't happen this year. Buy No.
just bet on diaz being out
the regime is colapsing, hurry up
Oh it definitly is, but in less than 10 months for a complete regime change? Highly doubt it after 67 years of ruling.
don’t underestimate american power, regime changes comes in days for cuban scenario
Don't think it will be this fast. The Cuban Government is still standing strong. I believe Cuba will slowly transform in a model that looks more like the Vietnamese one with a more open market, under American pressure ofcourse. But a total regime change in less than a year? Highly doubt that.
Yes it took so long time for Venezuela to make the regime fall... it's not the 60s anymore. Cuban regime is highly unliked by the youth in Cuba so a lot of cubans will welcome regime change. If Trump wants to remove gov, he surely can do so no problem
hahhhhahah what an amateur.