This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model by DeepSeek has a higher arena score than all OpenAI models on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) at any point by February 28, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that the arena score must be higher - if it ties with the best OpenAI arena score it will not count. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
At the next update, deepseek R1 will have a 18% chance of being higher than the best openai model.
When is the next update?
No but really. It should be. If you calculate the confidence intervals on km arena, deepseek's R1 has a 17% chance to be higher than openai's best model, 4o.
There's a chance o3 is better, but it's unlikely - lmarena voters don't like o1 or o3-mini much. They prefer stylish and well written over well-thought-through.
This should be at 17 actually.
18! [link removed]
R1 Score 12 Days ago: 1357 R1 Score Now: 1362 Its been increasing steadily
Gpt-4o is 1365 so 3 points away
R1 score 12 days ago :
I buy no cause I Dont like chinese,meet me at 80 cents.
Who can donate me just a liiiitle bit of money? Can't deposit anymore but wanna buy more. I will remember your name ;) even 1 dollar would be great! Thank you soooo much !! :)) !
OPENAI won't let this happen lol