Since the recent ascendency of the DeepSeek AI model, rumors have been spreading that the company has made use of a large amount of Nvidia hardware that they do not report. You can find more information on that here: https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1883946417133383797 This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that DeepSeek used Nvidia hardware banned from export to China in developing an AI model by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from the U.S. Government or Nvidia definitively claiming that banned Nvidia chips were used, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming their use will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, as well as official statements for the U.S. Government and Nvidia.
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"Probing" Also said circumvention of exports but there is no definite credible reporting that DeekSeek used it.
Did it happen? Likely. Will we prove it? Unlikely. Price's too good to resist though.
Might be proven but not within the next 18 hours.
There is also a difference between someone arrested for sanction breach to China and then saying that DeepSeek definitively is the end user and used it for training their model
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i hope no
IMHO it is likely they did do it, but there is no way to prove it hence will never resolve to Yes.
this will never happen
DeepSeek No.1
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China has already killed off whatever US spies there are in the mainland so it's impossible for this to ever be truly confirmed. The only way for this to be a Yes is for the US Gubmint to claim that DeepSeek did so, or they force Nvidia to say that by squeezing their balls.
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[link removed] Interesting thread
Whether they use or not, they will never admit that, if you know their performative personality
They would never admit it. The market is about whether other people (us government, Nvidia, reports) make a statement that they did
Considering Jensen paid Trump a visit yesterday, the next week is gonna be some Ugandan action packed movie
one thing to consider is who looks worse if this is proven yes? China or the US? if its the US then they may cover it up, even though it is obviously very likely that this is a yes.
trump can use this fact to bully singapore into cooperating in sanction compliance
I don't think anybody "looks worse". The US made a ban. The ban is regularly flaunted. It's been known for a few years that the band is not sufficient to achieve the outcomes that the past administration wanted.
Damn that was D.G.
Well that was interesting.
US officials are probing whether Chinese AI startup DeepSeek bought advanced Nvidia Corp. semiconductors through third parties in Singapore, circumventing US restrictions on sales of chips used for artificial intelligence tasks, people familiar with the matter said.
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I am a degenerate believer.
LUTNICK SAYS CHINA'S DEEPSEEK AI MISUSED AMERICAN TECHNOLOGY: "THEY STOLE THINGS, THEY BROKE IN, THEY'VE TAKEN OUR IP" -- SENATE HEARING
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