December 31$152K Vol.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Delcy Rodríguez ceases to be Acting President/leader of Venezuela for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Delcy Rodríguez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Delcy Rodríguez and the government of Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NO (60% confidence). Summary: The most likely path is a managed, slow transition rather than a sudden ouster. She retains court backing, military support, and increasing international pragmatism, making abrupt removal less likely this year. Pressure for elections or reforms can build without forcing her out. Even though a brief removal would count and adds some risk, the base case is that she remains in charge through 2026. Strategy: Allocate 65% to No at 52-56%, keep a 10% Yes hedge near key dates, add 15% No on spikes, and take profits on 8-12% swings. Key factors: court-backed succession and military endorsement provide durable protection, loyalist institutions can extend temporary absence frameworks and delay elections, early US-Venezuela transactional cooperation lowers near-term ouster incentives, resolution requires real loss of power and routine delegations do not qualify, and market odds plus top trader signals already favor No. Strength: Against 72%, For 58%. Quality: Good.
Can someone sponsor me with $1 so I can fulfill my dream of buying a chewing gum in the USA? I promise I won’t spend it all at once!
🎵 Delcy, Delcy, I believe! 🎵
but everything you comment is a lie, dipshit
that was fun
war over
It’s so over. Nothing ever happens. Billions must wager
can you guys buy more Yes
Presidential palace is getting cooked rn
This is the most progress we've seen in decades. Delcy is a survivor; she knows Maduro is never coming back from that Manhattan jail cell
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