This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between June 24, and July 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. Resolver
I was wondering why my PNL spiked :D
Alaskaaaaaaa babyyyyyyyyyyy
Now I’ve broke even from what was lost last month
We are here to learn and thrive, I was -2k and now +2k
Alaska - 7.3!
gg
Finally!
M 7.2 Alaska
M 6.7 Indonesia, close but not enough
Allah has spoken. There will be no earthquake..
praise be to him
lol
Allah a bih
YES
?
The stupidity on this market is on a whole new level, you can actually calculate everything down to a decimal and people still buy at the wrong EV like crazy...
That's why I love the natural disaster markets
The market is sitting at 49% yes right now. I just ran the calculations and I get 48.6% (including the half day). It is 7/12 right now.
isn't there literally no way to predic this???
6.3 New Zealand? Is that all you’ve got?
why are odds so much worse than last month
Because so many people lost money last month
On average, there are about 15 to 16 earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or greater globally each year.
Sounds like a Google AI stat
It's literally in the resolution sourcing
So far nothing right?
Easy money for no as usually, as for previous months
based on last decade data it is 67% probability
Time to go back to school cuh
grok says ~80% and if you look at the last decade there wasn't a 7.0+ earthquake inside this time frame in only one year+
That isnt how probabilities work mate 😭
ChatGPT can price the probability of this happening there is no excuse for getting it so wrong
Unless the probability is 100 one way or the other, that is the best excuse for getting it wrong
Ahh yes, ChatGPT the most trust worthy source of all time
I meant EVEN ChatGPT haha
This is a c.94% yes job. Thanks for the liquidity at 70
How did you get 94%? If I go with 10-15 events per year and plug it into a poisson formula I get 62% to 76% ?
Chance is around 70% if you look at the last 30 years
94% chance that the earthquake will happen? How so? I have been wondering about this one.