CultureMarkets
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
$455,586 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Yes$456K Vol.7%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
lol
why was there a spike recently ?
Former CDC director on Ebola outbreak: ‘I suspect this is going to become a very significant pandemic’ - The Hill
Former CDC director on Ebola outbreak: ‘I suspect this is going to become a very significant pandemic’- The Hill[link removed]
JUST IN: Former CDC director warns Ebola outbreak may escalate into a major global pandemic - The Hill
This is free money. Why do people even bet on this? In the ~0.0001% off-chance of it actually happening, your money will be worthless anyways.
Devil's advocate - there's plenty of middle-ground scenarios where ebola has mutated or a new variant becomes prevalent with a higher R0, perhaps as high as HIV, but remains well below a world-ending threshold (as HIV has). No buyers can get better interest rates on other markets though.