This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rate cut coming
ECB's anticipated rate cut in Q2 2025 is already boosting eurozone bond yields as markets price in softer inflation signals.
Right now: 0% probability of a rate cut in October and 2.5% in December. [link removed]
Today's cooling inflation data supports another cut in Dec, inflation data in 19th of Nov and unemployment rate on 2nd of Dec will be crucial