December 31$560 Vol.
June 30$163K Vol.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations. Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked. Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify. Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees. A qualifying agreement must be jointly announced and finalized, and take the form of a treaty, executive agreement, memorandum of understanding, joint declaration, or equivalent written instrument. Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, exploratory, or otherwise not indicative of a formalized policy will not count. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Qualifying European countries include: Albania; Andorra; Armenia; Austria; Azerbaijan; Belgium; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Bulgaria; Croatia; Cyprus; Czechia; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; France; Georgia; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Iceland; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Liechtenstein; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Malta; Moldova; Monaco; Montenegro; Netherlands; North Macedonia; Norway; Poland; Portugal; Romania; San Marino; Serbia; Slovakia; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; Ukraine; United Kingdom.
Is a no, spain already said they will not months ago it’s actually the best thing they did after decades…
giving guarantee is first step to Ukropolin - new jewish ukrainian state of exterminated Poles (Palestinians 2.0)
Why did this Jump up suddenly, as far as I am aware the Eu did not make any pledges at Davos
Did anyone from EU voted for “YES”? Are you ready to fight in Ukraine as Ukrainians do??
I don't see Vatican on the list
ahahaha
what's the point of this market, only NATO as a whole can agree on that
Sure, but being in NATO doesn’t excludes option being in Europe
No, being in NATO doesn't mean not being able to give security guarantees to other countries.
surely there's no way any country is stupid enough to do such thing
Security guarantees for Ukraine sound like a joke
Starmer and Macron didn't wait for NATO. They locked in the "Coalition of the Willing" on March 2. By June, the paperwork for the "Reassurance Force" was already done. Europe is finally leading
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