This market will resolve to "Kamala" if Kamala Harris is the odds-favorite on Polymarket the day before the election. This market will resolve to "Trump" if Donald Trump is the odds-favorite the day before the election. The odds-favorite the day before the election will be determined by taking an average of Kamala and Trump's odds in the 12-hour period between noon (12 PM ET) and midnight (12 AM ET) on November 4, 2024. The average will be calculated using prices in every 10 minute interval within the 12-hour period, and averaging them once midnight has passed. This market description will be updated with those data points and averages once they have been calculated. The resolution source for this market is https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024, specifically the markets for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
resolution wen?
propose resolution please
Kambala, youre fired
shldve sold it yesterday lmao
I really hope these flipping people aren't me tomorrow
only Trump
Should've bought at 70c the other day. Crap
faaqew whales! where are you when I need you!
the moneies they play with, they could do easy 6000% here, guess they didn;t care
This some bowl chit
get clapped
Elon is promoting this like a mf you could've known
Its Hoever 😔
I don't see the market flipping in the next 12h. Check the order book, there is a $500k queue before reaching 50/50. It was $100k earlier today. Even as Trump quotes trends downwards, I see it stabilising around 54-55%, without dipping much lower at any point, and certainly not over a 12h window.
In Ralston we trust.
Come on whales, do your thing here!
let the fleecing begin! to all the people who bought kamala and hoped for a flippening: your donation is much appreciated
ever thought about keeping your true loyalty for the real vote? and try to make money on this market dummy
flippening wen?
never
when do the results come, and do we get to see the live count?
when do the results start coming?*
The odds-favorite the day before the election will be determined by taking an average of Kamala and Trump's odds in the 12-hour period between noon (12 PM ET) and midnight (12 AM ET) on November 4, 2024. The average will be calculated using prices in every 10 minute interval within the 12-hour period, and averaging them once midnight has passed.
People seem to underestimate the volatility as election day approaches. 4% difference is really nothing
holdddd
1h in, the difference is now 7% and market flip is over $1m down the order book. I think you're the one overestimating volatility.
2h, 8.5%, $1.4m+
Kamala had a 4% increase in the past 10 hours. Whats stopping her from pushing above 50% in the next 2 days?
Could happen, but I don't think any new A rated polls are going to come out before this resolves. Of course the market could shift for other reasons though. It wouldn't take much to shift Kamala above 50
Mostly the fact that she is an incoherent babbling mess.
Lol every accusation is an admission of guilt.
Well PM is not a good outcome predictor, after all anyone with a couple million budget can change any of those "polls" here to an extreme. But one can hope .. if Harris is not crushingly defeated then the future of the US looks very dark. Vilifying half the population, using justice against political oponents, dehumanizing political oponents to the point of two assasination attempts. If this is not leading to a devastating loss then I'm really afraid about the next decades.
A couple million? What you talking about! The volume for presidential betting is almot 4 billions. Couple of million will barely move 1 percent.
Its happening guys
yup.
Oh yea
Its going to be really funny if the main market ends up at 50/50 tomorrow and this market just oscillates like crazy
100% this will be flat.