German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Free Democratic Party (FDP, Freie Demokratische Partei) wins 5% or more of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. If voting in the next German parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
Sorry newbie here.. Will this market ever resolve? I guess nobody's willing to post a750$ bond for a 5$ reward?
FDP got what they deserved... GAME OVER
Why would anyone dispute the proposed outcome of this very bet? Wouldn't they lose a portion of their bond for sure?
it was disputed because official results are not out yet
Oh, you're right. How could I miss that... [link removed]
you are such a stupid dumbass lmao
No wonder youre PNL is negative
lol
FDP got what they deserved... GAME OVER
The 4.6/4.7 number are projections, and stranger things have happened than a 0.4 jump from the projection to the actual results. Even more so as turnout is dramatically higher than before. Worth a punt
[link removed] is 4.3, so under 5 aswell
FDP is a party for the educated and rich. So I will wait for the mail vote counts
those mail votes came in quick buddy
Mail was counted on the same day. I literally went to a bar with a mail counter on the same evening.
ARD 21:11 4,6%, ZDF 21:15 4,7%. It's over :-(
Relax haha
Final count is at 3am lol
will we stop counting in different places at the same time and magically find some ballots all for FDP? Oh wait, that only happends in the US for democrats ;)
Mail voters will turn this around. Here you heard it first.
All in
Still very close 🔥
Update: FDP is dead. GG [link removed]
Easy win
Congrats!
:(
They will make it 🙏🏻
zdf sagt 4,8
Staedte sind langsamer im auszaehlen, das Land schneller. Deswegen steigend AFD und BSW aktuell, FDP wird nachziehen sobald die Staedte ausgezaehlt werden. Daher erstmal Yes kaufen ;)
Exakt, Leute vor Ort gehen Auszaehlungen durch und uebermitteln die Stichprobe in der Hochrechnung. Entsprechend sind Land und Stadt gleich gewichtet. Die Hochrechnungen versuchen das dann selbst n bisschen einzurechnen aber ja, der Effekt ist aeusserst marginal. Habe ihn selbst ueberschaetzt. Aber naja, waren 20 euro who cares. Ding ist durch. FDP ist raus.
4.7% now...arghhh
am sad too
jk the fdp sucks ass fuck them
Intense…
glad i didnt sell my no vote at 50/50
Still 4.9 at ard
This is so close