EconomyMarkets
Fed rate cut by...?
December Meeting21%
October Meeting16%
September Meeting12%
July Meeting3%
$2,172,415 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
December Meeting$163K Vol.21%
3%
October Meeting$54K Vol.16%
September Meeting$109K Vol.12%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Still a lot of room for surprises.
If new FED chairman Warsh will cut rate by end of meeting JUNE 16-17 this will be YES,right?
its a board who votes, yk that right, not just one guy
Ok,if board will cut it on june meeting 16-17 is it yes, or until this meeting.
Biggest risk for june meeting is that Warsh won't be there
Which is nil?
no, more than 10% for sure
Interesting. do they have that literal market? what's best market to take action on that?
yes "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?" He should be confirmed by may 15 or its major fuck up by the administration
no
march of corse
aprile
June Meeting
NO (72% confidence). Summary: A rate cut must occur by April 29, 2026 to resolve Yes. After easing in 2025, officials are signaling patience early in 2026, and many forecasters expect the next move closer to midyear rather than March or April. Without a clear shock forcing action, an early spring cut appears unlikely, making no cut by the April meeting the base case. Strategy: Hold a core No position, add small event driven Yes hedges before CPI and jobs prints, and trim exposure after the January and March FOMC meetings. Key factors: unanimous top trader consensus favoring No, Fed projections pointing to only one cut in 2026 and typically later in the year, policymaker guidance favoring a pause early in 2026 following 2025 cuts, major sell side forecasts shifting expected cuts to mid 2026, and no current catalyst for an emergency intermeeting cut. Strength: Against 78%, For 48%. Quality: Good.
Deflation then cuts. I am confident that makes me look smart.
80%
The Fed cut 25bps this month to finish the year with a cumulative 1.75% drop from the peak. Most experts say we're at "neutral" now, so don't expect more cuts until at least June 2026.