This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
@ummon want to buy a bit more yes?
No way
liquidity dried up on NO side, spread widening
mainstream media picking this up now, expect volume
this is obviously manipulated, look at the wallet distribution
probability curve looks exactly like the last time this happened
helloooo
obviously yes smfd
I think a Fed rate hike in 2025 is likely if inflation doesn’t cool down, but predicting timing is tricky with how unpredictable the economy has been lately.
Fed's unexpected rate hike in early 2025 is hammering mortgage rates back above 7 percent, derailing the housing rebound just as spring listings heat up.
OK, I'll explain why they're giving away money in this market. There are 2 monetary policy meetings left this year: October 29 and December 10. The probabilities for the October meeting are: rate cut at 96.7% and no change at 3.3%. For December, the probabilities are another rate cut at 96.5% and no change at 3.3%. There is no feasible scenario where the Fed has to raise rates this year--none, I repeat. Given that the probability is 0, the appropriate rate for this market is the risk-free rate. Considering the bet settles on December 10, which is 49 days away, the price of this bet today should be above 99.
Considering inflation issues are buried i have used money to disagree
Dude why are you guys still fighting this market? Fed is gonna cut 2 or 3 times this year. Worst case is no cuts.
tail risk hedging, cheaper than options
You are not hedging anything here. If you want to hedge it's better to pay front end rates with OIS Swaps.
you sold, I would have given you a better price
If your're 99.9% sure on this, ten why don't you buy up everything up yo 99.9% ?
You do know the concept of opportunity cost, don't you? I'd buy it if I didn't have to use capital and could leverage the bet. Having to use capital I'd never bet anything if it yields lower than the risk free rate that I could get through a tbill or a money market fund. Currently that rate is 4% so, since this bet is due in about 3 months, I'd never buy higher than 99, because (100/99-1 =1% or 4% apy)
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buy no
Honestly, I am ready to be suprised by the American economy. Crypto and the stock market has surprised me before the past 5 years. Let's hope that there is no rate hike this year and I should probably be an optimist. Might lose, but let's goooo.
Bro, you’re putting in more effort refreshing the app and writting than the actual cash you’re risking.
hahaha totally. Gotta start small. My stock investments are much bigger. But then, stocks are mostly less volatile and less risky. Just sold my yes. I totally reversed on this. We might even get an extra rate cut this year. Tariffs are taking waaaaay longer to take into effect than initially expected.
The worst-case scenario is no rate cuts and maintaining a hawkish stance through forward guidance. Rate hikes are not on the table.
Cheap hedge
thanks.
inflation is trending down but 10 Trillion (!) of private + govt debt rolls over this year. Debt situation is unsustainable and will need to be inflated away (albeit gradually). Deficit spending is bipartisan as cutting entitlements is political suicide
damn right
Inflation is trending down.
What do you get when you apply a battery of tariffs on imported goods while simultaneously reducing the labor supply by ~1M predominantly agricultural workers...