June 30, 2026$82K Vol.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French parlimentary election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
There should be another date, 31 December.
Who on earth can be long on this position?
If the mainstream parties get wiped out in the locals, Macron won't dare call a legislative election this summer; it would be political suicide.
"Mainstream" parties (LR & PS) won't get wiped out since control of local administrative echelons ("mairie", "departement" and "region") is the one thing that they can hang to these days. And the incumbency advantage is at its strongest for mayoral elections.
Sebastien Lecornu will make an announcement today. It seems likely that the 49.3 article of the French Constitution will be used by the government to pass the 2026 budget. The PS has already sent signals that they will be ok with it. And LR is a non-factor here. A new dissolution is very unlikely in the short-term. Especially before March mayoral elections.
I would much prefer the opposite, but unfortunately, I don't see a new dissolution happening in the very short-term. At the moment, the PS wants its stupid gamble to work out and then to claim that they won and that their strategy was the right one all along. And LR has already committed a political seppuku and is scared to death to return to the polls. I think this coalition of the weak should survive for now.
"Sebastien Lecornu explore l’hypothese d’une dissolution" - le Figaro The PM has asked the Interior Minister to examine the feasibility of new general elections at the same time of the mayoral elections. Probably to apply some pressure on the parties that have no interest in a new dissolution right now to be honest.
France’s budget is still unresolved. In January, Parliament must examine the budget, with the gvt relying on fragile majorities. A rejection could trigger a vote of no confidence, potentially forcing the Prime Minister to step down and possibly new elections. [link removed]
The timing would be awful. Parties are now focused on the upcoming mayoral elections. And new general elections would mean no budget for a while. It was of course incredibly irresponsible of centrist parties & LR to refuse to push for new elections when it was logical to do so (last September / October). The situation is messy and this government is pathetic but I think it will survive at least until March.
il ny' aura pas de dissolution avant noel, il faut que nos deputes puissent partir au ski quand meme
Yaurarien
FRANCE BAISE OUAIS
French election will not be called by, Lecornu will remain, Macron cannot afford to lose his prime minister again
I’m gonna buy more very soon. However this will depend on what resistance party introduces as for the budget bill. If I was PM, I’ll compromise now, give the socialists what they want in return for short term alliance until Le pen is imprisoned. Start betting on macron being ousted by June
What did I say people, what did I say lol.
free money elections before 31/12/25 ...
On vit quand meme une epoque ou socialiste et republicain se sont allies pour pas se soumettre au vote
Classical UMPS
nothing ever happens les gars
18 votes short. The October dates are off the table.
Yep. December another story, would still hard for PS to tell on every TV interviews that they accept Lecornu's budget
LR seats are all empty, it's over , fucking traitors.
It is relatively unwise to place money on one's personal hopes rather than relying on objective information...
Ca va se jouer a 10 voix, peut etre moins. On gaarde une haute proba que le gouv tienne, mais ca va etre drole a voir
ces cucks du PS perdent juste du temps
Joli pseudo, j'approuve
Mdrrrr meilleure pseudo
Ah ca, ca ressemblerait bien a ces enormes chiennes
Could a homie please send me a dollar? Thanks