This market will resolve to "Yes" if on October 1 (ET) a U.S government funding lapse occurs, but the Government does NOT shut down. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The government will be considered to have shutdown if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations on October 1, 2025 ET. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, specifically the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
I am very confused how this could happen
it happened months ago if youre new here
So what happened? How did it stay open without funding?
a last minute deal happened on march. I doubt a last minute deal eould happen this time tho
basically what happened is the whitehouse website developer was prolly gooning and forgot to post an article that donald trump signed a deal on the last minute thats why a government funding lapse resolved to yes. but based on credible consesus it was signed on the last minute so thats why there is no announced government shutdown
it was the biggest bullshit on march and lots of people lost money in it bc they trusted media articles instead of reading the rules
dont worry tho a last minute deal is unlikely
Got it. Yeah doesn't seem like there's going to be a deal this time. Basically the only way this happens is through a very specific order of events
its a safe no because if they do a deal early it will resolve a no because no funding lapse. but if they dont do a deal it will cause a shutdown. so we are basically betting if the rules will fuck us up
Ok that's what I thought, which was why I was surprised it was at 15% yesterday 😂