Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

do not lose hope - x com/ParetoPrincipl/status/2058627730304909509

Imagine you enter into a store and ask how much costs a banana. You are told that banana costs $1 a piece. You buy one, bite, and go to the checkout to pay. They tell "actually it now costs $25'000 a piece and not $1 anymore". You are obliged to pay. In no known jurisdiction this situation can happen legally. But this can happen in Polymarket. I spent $10kUSD buying YES shares at $0.45 then, as soon as the vessels entered Israeli waters, Polymarket wrote "actually the vessels must not simply enter into Israeli waters, they must enter freely and unescorted"

אבל הם לא נכנסו למים הטריטוריאלים של ישראל הטביעו את הספינות במים מול חופי יווון או קפריסין הם לא הגיעו לישראל בקיצור רק האנשים שהיו על הספינות הגיעו

In all known jurisdictions, including the U.S., the U.K., Germany, Monaco, Hong Kong, Macau, Monte Carlo, the moment a player places and the casino accepts a wager, the player enters into a contractual relationship governed by the gambling rules in force at the time the contract is formed with the house. In arrangements less random than casino wagering (e.g. prediction markets, shares), the contractual relationship formed according to the rules in force at the moment of commitment of value is characterized by a higher degree of legal enforceability in all known jurisdictions. In no known jurisdiction may one party unilaterally modify or replace a contract and its underlying rules after the contract has entered into force in order to compel performance under the revised terms.

This market is a scam BTW, first real scam ive seen since Ukro Minerals deal

At least they didnt get rape afaik, israelis rape their prisoners usually (source: NYT)

Several activists from the Global Sumud Flotilla arrived in Istanbul bearing severe injuries, including broken bones, following their abduction and mistreatment by Israeli forces.

entering into relation with polymarket constitute a contract under most of the jurisdiction. The rule of the market are the essential part of the contract. Users of polymarket make their bets according to the text of the contract that they read. One sided unilateral change of the text of the contract with retroactive effect with a subsequent imposition of the new terms of the contract during its execution constitute a severe infringement under civil and criminal law in many if not all jurisdictions.

I totally agree, but there is nothing we can do about it

this market is a scam. they updated the rules after the trade started, and after their own rule: "We’re aware of the dispute on this market. If a clarification is to be issued, it will be at 7:00 PM ET on May 19" but on the same screen I am seeing update date on 20 of May.

Becasue they are verifying evidence qualification. Rules are rules - nothing changed.

it turns out that the liquidity is poured into market by the users of polymarket according to one set of rule, but the contract outcome is judged by the UMA voters by another set of rules.

Why isn't there a resolution launched yet? If I could I would love take the free USD 5 given there and probably half of the bond of large holders that will desperately dispute the NO to try and save their position!

This market is over already. It will be proposed on June 1st.

NEW: Israel’s Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, visited the captives of the Gaza Flotilla in Ashdod Port alongside the Israeli police Captives are kicked in the stomach, forced to listen to the Israeli anthem, and taunted with Israeli flags by the police and the Minister himself.

Ben Gvir is a duche. Still, can't enter a war zone from hostile countries and expect to be shown love. It's like a revolving door. These sailors come in, spend a night or two in prison, and get sent home. Can't be that bad...many of them do it more than once!

Damn... Bought NO first, a month ago. After squeaking my eyes and re-reading the rules, watching the odds against another prediction named "Is the flotilla getting to Gaza", searched for historic references of what happened to past flotillas, went through several LLMs that stated that under those conditions, a captured vessel taken to Israel would count as a YES. I sold No and bought YES. Now, after 30 freaking days and all the vessel caught, they come in with a "clarification"?

Pretty clear to me that "enters waters" means that they were either not intercepted or were intercepted in Israeli waters. Where else would Israel bring the boats they captured? If it included boats brought in post-interception, there would be a certainty that the question would resolve to "Yes". Only the reading of the terms as explained in "Additional Context" would enable any uncertainty worth investing in.

LLMs give horrible advice.

LLM gave a honest advise. The problem is that users of polymarket contracted it with one set of rules, read those rules and made their payments accordingly, but the contract is changed unilaterally with a retroactive effect. LLM cannot consider such one sided retroactive changes in the contract, which in most, if not many jurisdictions, represents an infringement of the contract law, often not simply of the civil nature.

It is quite strange that the "clarification" of the ```Polymarket``` came after the seizure of all vessels and not before.

The clarification was actually unnecessary. You're grateful it was explained to you when, if you're a reasonable person, there was nothing to clarify.

Licensable picture: Israeli soldiers are seen on a vessel bearing symbols of the Global Sumud Flotilla, as it is brought into the port in Ashdod | Reuters Connect [link removed]

Nobody dares proposing a resolution.... Would sound like a good way to loose one's bond...

Good day

Very good day but not for egabriel

Gabriel can go back sleeping it’s better for him

גבריאל יליצן תחזור לישון

The ship was part of the flotilla when the rules were written i.e. it "is" part of the collection of ships identified in the rules.

It’s no

The ship has ceased to be a part of the flotilla as soon as it got captured. The rules talk about "A flotilla organized" which refers to the naval formation. The ship is no longer a part of that when it fell into IDF hands as a prize [link removed].edu/wex/prize_law