German elections are scheduled for February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a coalition agreement (Koalitionsvertrag) for the next German government after the election is officially signed by June 2, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Scam
its says for 100 days not before 100 days so put it back to see what happen then
why the bet is as yes,cause its not 2 june yet,it can happen anything,i really wanted to bet
cause the title is wrong. It should ask "will there be a coalition treaty between parties in the first 100 days". It has nothing to do with actually forming a coalition as seen in the rules. Wrong title bets are quite common on Polymarket.
Spd voting on it it’s very likely that a lot them will agree to it so it’s over grand coalition here we come
considering the many SPD members against the aggreement and some disaggreements about things like Mindestlohn, "No" is undervalued here [link removed]. but since there is no liquidity here its not worth trading.
They will agree to it tho what better do they have
I agree. Still, JuSo's for example will vote against it. Again its very likely but not 99% likely it will happen in the first 100 days.
Yes they will but a lot spd members knows that this coalition is their chance in government
Having seen the public announcement, this is done-done. It'll trade at 99.9ct in no time, except for some sabre rattling from the SPD members.
rotate the money between the 4 markets. now merz is cheapest. and they effectively have the same resolution
It's done. Public announcement at 15 CET. Official result early May.
koalitonsvertrag ist da [link removed]
AfD soon to overtake CDU in polls...CDU members leaving the party in recent days...Seems Merz is even worse than Merkel
[link removed] In other words: No agreement before Easter, "and the tough part of the negotiations is yet to come, taxes, migration, aso" ...OMG
I think Merz does a lot of hamstring stretching daily, because its remarkable how much he can bend over to take in the demands of SPD and Greens ;)
he's more flexible than yoga masters
The new coalition might not get the play money they wanted after the Greens said No today, which would make the negotiations more difficult.
Yeah look austria it will take more than 100
Look Austria.
They want to form a government more quickly than originally planned. They are both of the opinion that things have to go faster because of developments with Ukraine/Trump.
Its the last chance for the SPD, if they disagree they are below 10%. The wanted to boykott the first meeting because the CDU wants to audit the support of all NGOs - but the meeting took less than 24h later place.😂
It will take way less than 100 days, the SPD has a lot of amateurs in its party, but they are not that stupid.
[link removed] Last SPD-CDU coalition was in 2017 btw. You can expect this to take 70-140 days.
Now it's likely that it will take less than 100 days due to SPD and CDU being able to coalition just by themselves.
CDU SPD coalition still more likely to happen, but 96% is too optimistic. Especially because a coalitions needs also a majority within a vote of the SPD party base. They would be stupid to vote for that, on the other side stupid decisions are not out of character with SPD. No might still be a good opportunity for contrarians.
SPD will push the CDU to do all kind of concessions and CDU will have to swallow them as they have no other coalition options (they excluded AFD). Very bad negotiation position for CDU, but entirely home-made mistake...