PoliticsMarkets
Grok 5 released by...?
June 30, 20261%
December 31, 2025<1%
March 31, 2026<1%
$170,139 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30, 2026$61K Vol.1%
1%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public. Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Damn we really don't believe him for even a bit anymore
Add setember and december, please
march 31 be ready
Elon just said in an interview on moonshots that grok 4.2 is coming by end of January and grok 5 will be launched Q1 2026 which is before April 1st
then why you bought yes ?
because its YES IT WILL RELEASE by june 30th
Jesus fucking Christ cash me out already freaks
Elon posted on X Dec 9 2:10pm ET "Grok 4.20 is coming in ~3 weeks and then Grok 5 in a few months". Obviously Grok 5 not coming this yr. be smart with your $ people. This is public on X just look it up
Elon Musk wrote on X yesterday (December 9, 2025): "Grok 5 will be released before the end of the year. First for SuperGrok and Premium+ subscribers, then to all free users within a few days." The post has garnered 2.8 million views and 68,000 likes. The [link removed] website's Roadmap section clearly states: "Grok 5 - December 2025, public release before December 31." This morning (December 10), xAI confirmed: First on December 25-27 for SuperGrok and Premium+, December 28-30 for everyone else for free.
@grok this true?
bizarre lie. Elon posted on Dec 9 "Grok 4.20 is coming in ~3 weeks and then Grok 5 in a few months". be smart with your $ people. This is public on X.
Thanks grok
Elon said on Nov 14 on an interview with Ron Baron that Grok 5 releases in Q1. How are people betting Yes on Dec 31 still? We know there's no f-ing way it'll release before Elon's estimate
think can't post links here but look for "Elon Musk at Ron Baron's Baron Capital Conference, Nov 14, 2025" posted by Heller House around 32-min mark on YT
people hate money on this website
I honestly doubt Grok 5 drops this year, seems like they are still ironing out major bugs from the last version.
"Never bet against Elon." - Peter Thiel
Just released it
grok 5 realeased in 01/2026, check elon twitter
Why is no one fixing this Anthropic "mistake"?
"The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public" I think I'm buying "No"
if December one resolves to Yes - does that mean the second option is automatically yes?
I think so
He said it, idk why it would not happen
He also hinted at Grok 4.20. Nothing will happen.
I don't live in Cuba. Can I have some of the money?
[link removed] Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good
yeah, i'm newer than you and with x13 your pnl
i know he is not to be trusted, but i'm pretty sure this time it is true....
You do realize we can see your bet right?
you do realize that i have both options? and you are commenting with a 0 pnl?