House control after 2024 election?

Sold 20k at 99.5c. RIP $100

The way these markets resolve without holders getting notifications is very suspicious. I would have disputed this resolution. There is no other market on Polymarket that was taking bets on whether Democrats or Republicans would have House control when the new House sits. So it doesn't make sense to interpret this market as being just about seats won even if those seats are subsequently vacated before the House sits.

whats wrong?

Bonds 25k, usually it is 750, and the volume of this market is low too

why does the volume matter?

Because if the volume is low, if the biggest whale doesn't propose, no one will

yes

someone who isn't me should really do something about this.

There is ambiguity for a number of reasons and therefore: "this market will remain open until the Speaker of the US House is selected following the 2024 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with / intends to caucus with at the time of their election to that position." See you in 2025...

There is no ambiguity, retardio. A market exactly like this was resolved. The thing is that the bond is too high for this market with such low volume

I have an open order for 20k shares @99.2c (0.8c for you). Please fill it if you think it's worth the price

Define "following the 2024 U.S. House elections"

https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2024-election?tid=1731777805918. How about you define it for me? Exact same rules excluding senate and president

hiiii can anyone pls send some tips?

why is this not resolved yet?

High price of bond, 25k

anyone wanna propose?

This market resolves based on voting members of the house after the election, not based on how many people win their elections. Trump is currently planning to appoint 3 republican house members to the Cabinet, causing them to resign from the house and vacating their seats. Polymarket estimates a 43% chance that only 220 republicans will win the election.

So you're assuming that Trump will voluntarily give the house to the Democrats by his own actions? Seriously?)

Not sure if trolling or serious. Obviously your math abilities are not the best either. Even if they obtain 220 - 215 majority say, if three guys would resign, it would still be 217 - 215, i. e. Rep majority. I think given the rules it is obvious the market should be reconciled now as all the other election bets, all of AP, Fox and CBS calling House Rep controlled now.

He's done dumber things...

He could give it up temporarily until special elections are called for replacements. He's evidently willing to sacrifice legislative momentum for a stronger cabinet, so it's not too far out of the question.

make the market

If Trump appoints 3 house members as he's planning to do now ([link removed] to Cabinet, and only 220 republicans win the election (43% chance right now: https://polymarket.com/event/of-gop-seats-in-house-of-representatives?tid=1731569018652), wouldn't that mean the majority of voting House members would be democrats?

Per the resolution criteria, "If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the US House is selected following the 2024 US general election." There are less than 50 days until Jan 3 when congress opens and the speaker of the house is selected. Special elections for representative Elise Stefanik would be held 70-80 days after they resign for congress, after the speaker of the house is chosen.

if the republicans are at 220 that means the Dems are at 215, 220-3=217 so wouldn't that still give the Republicans a 2 seat advantage? Am I missing something?

You're not missing anything. This guy is coping

I only spent $30 at 0.2 cents, because I think it's very unlikely, but more like 0.5% than 0.2%. There's a 2% chance for 219 seats, if Trump appoints 4 house members total, then 215-216 with dem majority. It's pretty unlikely he'd do this, but I think the chance is more than 10% (since he already plans to do 3), and 2.0% * 0.1 = 0.2%.

Trump is prioritizing presidential power over Congress, and to me it's not too far-fetched that he'd sacrifice his legislative majority for a stronger executive branch.

So, are you saying that if it ends up at Republican 218 - Democrat 217, there's still the chance by the time Congress starts next year, the Democrats could take 1 or more of the open seats that President Trump will nominate to his cabinet and there for be the majority?

And would that qualify for a resolution to Democrat?

If he appoints 4 people and 219 win, 215 Rep and 216 Dem, Dem majority, would resolve democrat. Unlikely, but seems more likely than 0.7%

Republicans gain say in the Senate and House of Representatives

Dems gonna steal all CA seats 0_0

@Selfmade420 is a dem lmao they are crying

Belonging to the Republican Party

Yeah,House control after 2024 election.

DecisionDeskHQ already called Republicans...

Do I sell it now or do I hold on to squeeze another 0.4% from libtard degenerates

now all Trump people please bet on McCormick winning in PA so we can take your money when Casey wins from provisionals. thanks.

Assuming there are 100,000 provisional ballots with 32,000 from Allegheny and Philadelphia, with the rest distributed in the same proportions among the other counties based on current turn out, assuming % support candidates get from each county stays the same, McCormick has a small 0.4% edge. A lot of assumptions, I know.

DDHQ is showing GOP with 218 now. GG

I have wood, and will need a few minutes before i can stand up :)

DD's numbers don't add up... 217 - 209 = 426... total should come to 435 so 9 still undecided but their map shows 7 undecided???

How can you count those districts on the map? I can hardly see them.