EconomyMarkets
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)77%
1 (25 bps)15%
2 (50 bps)3%
3 (75 bps)2%
$34,253,918 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)$5M Vol.77%
1 (25 bps)$1M Vol.15%
2%
2 (50 bps)$1M Vol.3%
1%
3 (75 bps)$1M Vol.2%
4 (100 bps)$1M Vol.1%
5 (125 bps)$2M Vol.<1%
6 (150 bps)$3M Vol.<1%
7 (175 bps)$2M Vol.<1%
8 (200 bps)$2M Vol.<1%
9 (225 bps)$3M Vol.<1%
10 (250 bps)$4M Vol.<1%
11 (275 bps)$4M Vol.<1%
12+ (300+ bps)$3M Vol.<1%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Getting mine after tourists explained it on X /post/status/2063934558093869379
habra recortes seguroooo
9 - unreal
How does 1 hike 1 cut resolve?
This is a scam obviously
por cuantas van?
Two cuts feels like the consensus path right now
theres barely even a single cut on the table, the consensus is no cuts or a hike. the data doesnt support any kind of cuts now with rising unemployment, slow job growth, and sticky inflation. the fed has no choice but to wait and see which of the two forces is stronger
poly98 predicts at least one.. hoping its right
To the Moon 📈
How would a rate increase resolve? 0 resolved to Yes, or everything resolves to No?
Dont be retarded please
Yea.. 0 resolve to Yes bro
chill fam 😂
my ranked teamates
tough markets to trade… my prediction market agent at pref[trade] just flagged that there’s some disparity with fedwatch.
why doesnt polymarket and fedwatch coincide?
They are cooking fedwatch and general public opinion to lower the inflation expectations. Lieing also prevents the speculative investors from frontrunning. Polymarket odds are about right. We'll probably get rate cuts.
A classic in the human mind: if we don't know something, it's been manipulated.
2
200 never gues
8 month to wait the result, bro
I am a programmer/engineer looking for a part time job while I finish masters, if anyone interested DM on discord on my profile.
If it cuts 100 bps the 25,50 and 75 cuts will resume to NO, correct?
yes, its the exact amount
priced in for 2 hike by the end of oct now.