PoliticsMarkets
Insurrection Act invoked by...?
December 3122%
June 302%
March 31<1%
January 31<1%
$1,092,642 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31$137K Vol.22%
June 30$72K Vol.2%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
He'll impose insurrection act by 10/1/26
Can we get a September 31 strike?
agreed
How come is this not resolved yet for January 31?
taco tard strikes again
0% chance Trump invokes the act before a funding bill is passed.
Nothing Ever Happens
Alex Pretti much died for nothing lmao
Protests don't seem any different than they've been in the past weeks. No Insurrection Act by 1/31 is my bet.
I see what you did there
poor guy never learned not to tussle with the legal violence while holding a weapon
i really don't like this position...
nothing ever happens edition 12584
I'm in insurrection will be declared.
It will not be declared. This is going to be no different then the previous shootings where insurrection act fears grow then decline.
TRUMP ON MINNEAPOLIS SHOOTING: MAYOR AND GOVERNOR ARE INCITING INSURRECTION
And yet he's not invoking the act yet. Bet you this doesn't happen by the end of the month.
why then?
There's only a week left in the month. I think he'd only invoke it if he feels he can get away with it both legally and politically. That would likely require clear violence from the anti-ICE side, which we haven't seen so far. Protesters are angry but they're not violent.
People are overreacting to the shooting. There's only one more week left in the month.
Minneapolis chimping out rn over latest ICE shooting of illegal alien
[link removed]
There's only one week left in the month. The insurrection act is not any more likely to be invoked just because of one shooting.
this is the third ICE related shooting in Minneapolis in a month wtf are you talking about?
If those two didn't lead to the insurrection act, why would this one?
because people lose their shit more each time it happens and Trump literally just posted that the mayor and governor are inciting insurrection
He threatened the insurrection act after last week's shooting and nothing happened.
Why haven’t you bought into “No” then?
Because I don't (and can't) bet.
Retard illegal alien just got slimed by border patrol for pulling a gun while being detained lol it’s on!
[link removed]
Why would Trump do it? I mean, what would the difference be? He's already getting all he wants: deportations, headlines, punching some liberals in the face, serving subpoenas to Democrats in charge. Serious question.
It would normalize the use of the act, which could let him use it more freely in the future. It also just expands the powers he has which he's shown to do.
Agreed, but using it now could result in congress or SCOTUS restricting it, so he might opt to keep it in his pocket until a time such as election day
ICE storm coming
very very unlikely
The Coldest airmass on Earth will be centered over Ontario with mid-level temperatures of -50C rarely observed except with most extreme Siberian cold.
Can someone pls tip me just 250 ddollar will change my live
Last time Insurrection Act was invoked was in 1992 by George HW Bush. Hurrican Katrina, George Floyd riots and 6th of Jan happened and the Act was NOT invoked. Trump also threatened when George Floyd happened....