GeopoliticsMarkets

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei77%

Reza Pahlavi5%

No Head of State3%

Abbas Araghchi3%

$14,503,314 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei$3M Vol.

77%

Reza Pahlavi$264K Vol.

No Head of State$780K Vol.

RulesMarket Context

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Holders

Malaya6372Papermarket5d ago

hard to bet against the status quo holding through the year

MalganisPapermarket6d ago

It's strategically important for the IRGC to keep ambiguous Mojtaba's status, weither he's in the best shape of his life or, more likely, under an unmarked grave. This market real value is more or less "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?", currently sitting wayyyy cheaper at 13 cent.

monstur-Papermarket18d ago

This is a scam obviously

0x08D3B3B85486415EB01D5670a75F2ea4958D4D01-1769819978040Papermarket26d ago

People overwhelmingly want Pahlavi and the current leaders keep dropping, isn’t it obvious?

YarickPapermarket33K No32d ago

[link removed] Us intelligence and CIA shows Mojtbna Khamenei is either dead or cannot function normally. No way he is leading his fractured country…

FlafsonPapermarket26d ago

Many market resolve over a negative outcome not because they didn't happen but because there is no way to prove it happened in the given timeframe. I 100% agree with you but right now doesn't matter his state, IRGC has no interest in revealing the truth. Even if war resumes and he's dead and none knows about it and Israel kills more leaders, how do we know he's not leader anymore? Weird situation to be at.