GeopoliticsMarkets
Iran leadership change by...?
December 3123%
June 301%
March 31<1%
March 13<1%
$17,431,089 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31$3M Vol.23%
1%
June 30$3M Vol.1%
2%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
not saying the notards are right but.. has anyone in here actually looked at Ten poly this week
15 years left tic-toc
Didn;t you have another account seething about Israel in all the comments? You are annoying as shit. I don’t even care about Israel but you are a butthurt third worlder and it shows.
Iran’s leader, Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, in a statement: The hands of time will not turn back. Regionsl nations & lands will no longer act as shields for US bases. Not only will America lack a safe haven for its mischief & military bases in the region, but its former status is fading day by day. The shaky Zionist regime & the cancerous tumor of ‘Israel’ is approaching its final days. By God's grace, and exactly as predicted 10 years ago by the great Leader, ‘Israel’ will not survive to see the 25-year mark from that date.
This is a scam obviously
T
no more changes this year
You don't even know if he's alive how can anyone bet on this?
Moj Safu
He's defiantly dead. This is IRGC coup which they using his name to run the country. Polymarket shouldn't resolve any date until further information and clarity. He's not leading the country not in May nor March
you can't prove it unfortunately
Momo stay strong
This is one of those markets where ‘reported instability’ ≠ actual removal or loss of authority u get me
poly95 on leadership markets like this basically ignores rumors and waits for confirmed loss of de facto control
Diplomatic signals accelerated recently.
Of course it will change! No other way! As God commanded!
Pretty wild considering he’s dead or hasn’t been seen publicly.
IRGC push this guys to be supreme leader after he heavily injured , and about to die, IRGC control the military now they have a puppet ayatollah, no reason to announce to world even puppet is dead so they dont have to pick another that might threaten IRGC total power
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: Islamic Iran, with practical gratitude for the blessing of managing the Strait of Hormuz, will secure the Persian Gulf region and remove the enemy's hostile abuses from this waterway. The legal rules and the new management of the Strait of Hormuz will bring comfort and progress for the benefit of all the nations of the region, and its economic blessings will bring joy to the hearts of the people, God willing, even if the disbelievers dislike it.
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: By the power and might of God, the bright future of the Persian Gulf region will be a future without America and in the service of the progress, comfort, and welfare of its peoples. We are "fellow destinies" with our neighbors in the waters of the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and foreigners who maliciously covet from thousands of kilometers away have no place there except at the bottom of its waters. This chain of victories, achieved by the grace of God and through the policies of resistance and the strategy of a strong Iran, will mark the dawn of a new regional and global order.
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: The presence of American foreigners and their nesting and establishment in the lands of the Persian Gulf is the most important cause of insecurity in the region. The fragile American bases do not have the capacity to ensure their own security, let alone hope to provide security for the dependents and America-worshippers of the region.
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: The peoples of the Persian Gulf region, who for many years had become accustomed to the silence and submission of their rulers in the face of bullies and aggressors, have witnessed in the past sixty days the beautiful manifestations of firmness, vigilance, and the heroic struggle of the naval forces of the Army and the IRGC. They saw the zeal and bravery of the people and youth of the southern region of dear Iran in rejecting foreign domination.
In a few moments, Iran’s Leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, will broadcast a message via IRIB on the occasion of National Persian Gulf Day. It will be likely a written message, like the previous ones.