This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate between June 11, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
gonna be so funny if this resolves to YES while the Friday market resolves to NO after a successful dispute LOL
sucessful disputes do not exist
*INITIATE* means something VERY specific. Would it makes sense to ask if Ukraine will initiate an attack on Russia? NO, because that war has been raging for years. Likewise, this war began when Israel *INITIATED* 20 hours ago. Only ONE side can initiate, and that side was Israel! DISPUTE DISPUTE DISPUTE
trying to play grammar police on the rules of the market has never worked before and its certainly not going to work now
Not grammar just facts! There was no war when this market launched. This was over when Israel struck first
ie, INITIATED
Iran RETALIATED, they did not *INTIATE*. Words matter
Everyone’s got it WRONG! The contract very clearly says Iran must *INITIATE* a military attack. But it was *ISRAEL* who initiated! This should be a NO. DISPUTE DISPUTE DISPUTE [link removed]
The resolution is WRONG!
A initiate means to be the one who does the attack not to be the one to start the fight
https://polymarket.com/event/iran-strike-on-israel-by-friday/iran-strike-on-israel-by-friday?tid=1749838098497 Yes holders can hedge with this market, so feel free for holding yes!
Israel got hit by Iran this is yes 100%
Iran about to hit
Gg guys
what happened?
Attack
Nothing happened (Israeli)
that's really cute one side is sending jets the other is sending tiny drones
As a possibility Iran should wait and prepare a stronger attack after June.
are you out of your mind?
((((
by this rate there will be no Iran by the end of June!
All drones shot down did not reach israel airspace
how is that not 99c
They don’t really have missile capabilities anymore other than some drones which are easy to shoot down. Their best play is honestly to suck up to Donald since they were close to a deal imo
🤡
Stupid bitch, will you ever stop losing your money?
Perhaps this market. We’ll see. We don’t really know the full extent of damage done to Irans strike back capabilities g. Perfect tactical timing by Israel
Also they are likely to strike back with remaining proxies rather than directly imo
do you realize that there is no way Israel will intercept all balistics outside their airspace if there will be a launch(which is almost guaranteed)?
Iran's ballistic capabilities remain completely intact buddy
Put your money where your mouth is. 10% gain in two weeks pretty good. Beating the market handsomely there
Took them over a week to hit Israel last time, same will happen here
what's stopping israel from pounding their launchers when they have no air defence
flawless victory
BREAKING: Israel says it has intercepted all the drones launched by Iran. UK, US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan have helped to intercept them. [link removed]
This is different market. There are still chances of Iran launching ballistic missiles and more wide scale operation.
sure. Iron dome is too good at shooting these down though.
No dome is perfect. Last time there was still 1 or 2 confirmed hits.
The Iron Dome cannot intercept hypersonic missiles like Fattah2 because its radar tracking, interceptor speed, and targeting algorithms are technically inadequate against the missile’s extreme velocity and maneuverability.
All 100+ drones launched by Iran against Israel have reportedly been intercepted by the Israeli Air Force and Allies. [link removed]
You all are acting like there arent 17 days left
ever heard of the Iron Dome? Apparently more effective than Durex.
you don't think Israel will be ready and prepped for anything via air?
Good one but let me say it in Clash Royale words: Iran is playing rocket spam cycle so eventually a tower will fall
and iran is pulling elixir out of their ass
Its rocket spam so elixir average is probably about 2.9 or sum
if the "Iron Dome" gets to a point of being used that literally would qualify as a yes as it would have meant Iran breached Israel airspace.
NO idiots don't realize that there is still plenty of time before the end of the month. If any news source states that there was damage inside Israel, this market will immediately resolve like YES
and it will be slow and calculated.
Likely not going to see another 'reaction' that gets into Israel territory by then.
Bro there are 17 days left