This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Cyprus’s ground territory by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces or any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact Cyprus’s ground territory. Cyprus’s ground territory refers to (i) all land on the island of Cyprus, including territory under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, UN buffer zones, and military bases under the sovereign control of other nations, and (ii) all land internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Cyprus, including all territory under de facto Republic of Cyprus administration as of March 2, 2026. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Cyprus’s soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Why hasn't a decision been made yet?
Yes resolution source - The Guardian - Hezbollah said to have launched drone that struck UK RAF airbase in Cyprus A one-way attack drone – said to have been launched by Lebanon’s Hezbollah – struck the UK’s RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus at about midnight on Sunday, prompting a partial evacuation of the military facility. Resolution criteria allows for RAF bases on Cyprus and Attacks from Hezbollah
whoops, ty
General Ebrahim Jabbari, an aide to the chief commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), claimed during a television appearance on Mar. 2 that the US has “moved the majority of its aircraft” to Cyprus. “We will fire so many missiles toward Cyprus that the Americans will flee from there as well,” he added.
Howcome no one dispute this is clearly a YES its been confirmed many times also by high ranking officials in cyprus and by the media, this is a SCAM
How it can be solved as a no if the attacked by hezbulla has been confirmed?
Cypriot Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos confirmed in March 2026 that drones targeting the British Akrotiri base were launched from Lebanon. Kombos expressed dissatisfaction with the UK's handling of the situation and called for a review of security cooperation. Read the full statements at Parapolitika.
yes i have 4 articles dispute its a yesss
Dispute its a YES
dispute please
too slowly
its yes guys
their were NO attact on cyprus by march 7 pls resolve already
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time
there were at least 2 attacks
Didnt the drones that hit cyprus come from lebanon? Thats hezballah
why not resolving?
It’s ezzzz
Just got hit
Looks like RAF base got targeted
Nope.
Unconfirmed reports of explosions in Cyprus.
the times article link was published 11:58 AM et and that is before market creation the article also says monday morning. before market creation = no bread.
march 2nd drone happened before market creation save your money look at the time new article provided Which explicitly way "monday morning" and published 11:58 AM et which is before market creation. Before market creation = no bread
highly unlikely to happen with French, Greek and British warships now converging on the region but who knows. A missile might still get through
and spanish now