This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory between May 22, 6 PM ET, and May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Yemeni soil is subject to an Israeli missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
https://polymarket.com/event/norway-chess-2025/will-gukesh-dommaraju-win-the-2025-norway-chess-tournament?tid=1748426949464 for those looking for the next bet
Who the hell is brigading the order book
Might be fake news lol
For the record, I am not an insider - my trading history should tell you that much and this is ny first time even playing a Yemen market. But its not hard to figure out who is.
Yup easy to see who is
Look at the activity history easy to see
Edmonchuck
Polymarket once again knows 7 hours before
The insider was crazy
[link removed]
GG
If you buy no your burning your money
Ive watched the same story in this Yemen market over and over
Told you so
Nothing happened in the real world, and everything else is just speculation.
you still think its profitable to buy no? i lowkey wanna hop in
I don't see any reason why there is an 85% chance of this happening.
You don’t realize that the accounts buying thousands in yes at 95c probably know something you don’t?
They may think that Israel will definitely respond to the attacks that the Houthis have carried out in recent days.
No israel takes days and sometimes weeks to respond, the way these accounts are buying yes it’s bc they know for certainty, watch.
Will see
Question seems to be what are the chances these people are trading inside info. Seems like in a pretty thin market like this its def possible that the couple people buying YES are just buying it without inside info so i dont hate it at 15c. Price was around 60c before they started buying so if we assume its either insiders and it goes YES or its not and it drops back to 60c then current pricing implies over 60% chance its informed people which seems high to me
this is a obv pretty bad model for pricing a market like this thats about to expire but helps a bit with thinking
yes is at 99.4 right now…. is an attack confirned?
Guys don’t buy no these guys have inside information that israel will attack
I’ve seen it happen time and again
Meanwhile this guy has his no shares order ready to get filled
You can see when I baught I haven’t baught more no
Suite yourself lose your money
So sell your shares buddy
I just did
Told you so
Nobody would trade a thousand dollars for potential problems with Shin Bet, don't talk nonsense about "insiders"
lol bro
Seem like people are
Not going to happen
If we know hours before an attack the houthis probably figured out by now to watch polymarket
Mossad should enter this chat
wtf is going on
Insider trading
I don't see any news, am I not paying attention or are the yes holders having collective confusion?
I'll buy more
The other main yes holders are not dumping they know there’s An attack coming
Whats with the spike? There is no news - is it insider?
Well it ends in 5 days and its 15%, so there must be something otherwise ppl would buy no en masse
this market is undervalued...
I have been here before, i would get out if i was in you.. trust me
Same I’ve seen the same story over and over
Israeli insiders better not rug pull the no shares. I'm balls deep in this bet.
u have like 30 bucks on this thing
Shut up u have none and I'm doing a challenge
These israel strike on Yemen markets are mad shady there’s always insider trading not sure why I’m here again.
For real just look at the past markets for this same thing, almost all them ended Yes and I don't see why this would be any different. I'm still holding No cuz my gut says so. Could be stupid, who knows.
That’s not true they didn’t all end up yes not even close
look at usernameunkown and Wally J's activity, you'll understand.