This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies between September 30, 2024, and October 4, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
gg
how is this legal. I like it
Convinced. Bought 5 more NO
Attack is imminent
Source bastard
High likely
Israel made the decision . They will attack tonight
Attack is imminent
but not today
Come collect free shekels on NO
Don’t get to horny they are carrying out intelligence flights
you dont send out 4 f35s to intelligence flights. just my 2 cents
You do to see if Iran are on high alert
maybeee, lets see, as i said highly doubt they are attacking now. only time can tell
ez money?
we dont know if those f35s belong to israel (they probably are) or if they will attack (probably not)
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It’s holiday szn
less then 12 hr left.
free 8%
It's Roch Hachana today
Biden causing everyone who betted on Yes to lose money
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what
Great news
This certainly changed the odds
the price fell so much, as if the market expected to be told in advance of the time and place of such a blow if there was one. Obviously these plans are kept top secret, aren't they?
if the strike happens, before Saturday, it will be either tonight or tomorrow, which is more likely.
I meant that if at the start of the market we had 4 days to strike and 2.5 of them have already passed, then the value of these first days is not linear and is less than the last. at the beginning of the market estimated the probability of 70% now it is 20%, although not much has changed, in the sense that if a strike is planned, it is most likely at night tonight or tomorrow.
I agree that 70% might have been a bit high in the beginning, although considering the fact that no one doubts the answer itself, there is also a question. But since then the price has fallen 3.5 times, although in fact nothing has changed much, and this already rather says that now the price is rather undervalued. And in April there was a very different situation, because Israel was actively fighting in Gaza and feared Hezbollah's invasion in response to the strikes on Iran. Those fears are now gone. About the Jewish New Year, I agree. So in the early days, there was much less likelihood of a strike.
my mistake
How did I miss such a sale? Damn.
Israelis are patient
idf on top