This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on three or more different countries' soil by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of September 11, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Qualifying circumstances that will resolve this market to "Yes" include, for example, if all Syrian, Yemeni, and Qatari soil is hit by an Israeli missile or drone within this market's timeframe. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
last minute attack? [link removed]
fake news
how hasnt this resolved they bombed kiswa on 9/13.
so cheap
what is the status? how many countries have been stricken so far?
two, lebanon and Yemen
what about qatar?
The market was created after Israel hit Hamas in Qatar.
this market is so unusually cheap, wish i was degenerate enough to buy more
according to iranian news agency TASNIM; israel conducted an air strike in quneitra while forces were seen in daraa
Fake news
Lying in the big '25 🥀
i am so confused by this market. isn't it already YES? Lebanon Sept 18, Yemen Sept 16, Syria all the time
there was no strike in Syria it was Syria military training
As an Israeli who lives news from all sorts of sectors every day, I can tell you that right now the only war that interests Israel is the war against Gaza. There are no longer any attacks in Lebanon, it is very rare, the only ping-pong is against Yemen. There is currently no attack on Iran on the horizon, and Syria will sign a security agreement in the coming days, apparently following Trump's pressure on Netanyahu and Julani, as well as Julani's statement, which reduces the possibilities for attacking 3 countries.
Lebanon, yeman, qatar?
Do you really believe they will bomb qatar again?
The last truly credible one was Syria, and they are going to conclude an agreement with Israel within the week.
One of the most mispriced geopolitical markets on this site. Foolish not to buy Yes at these levels.
Why buy this when you can get Syria strike for 20 cents?
Buy more Yes
[link removed]
This was a ground incursion, market requires air strike.
Does this not count for Syria??
which countries has Israel even striked so far?
Yemen only. I don't think its a realistic bet
Looks like Israel has proposed (!) to the Syrian government a security agreement. Odds should be shifting towards No here.
Need to see more info on these, Israeli strikes Yemen, Lebanon and Syria almost every day.
what does @tychestreet knows😄
This bet is whether Israel will strike Syria or not.
Which is hella tricky, it's often hard to proof even if they do
yemen , lebanon are okay. what bout for third ?
Syria was not attacked in the market timeframe so far
No it was fake
Letsgooooo