This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against an Iranian oil or gas facility, inclusive of all Iranian oil rigs, or refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on Iranian soil or within Iranian maritime territory, between October 1 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetec actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
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OSINTdefender, one of Polymarkets top creators has confirmed that Israel has attacked Iran oil.
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Israeli channel 12, the biggest channel in Israel has confirmed that Israel targeted Iran oil.
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it should be a very clear no - but after I have just seen the UMA scam in the Israel attacks Iraq market, not so sure anymore
same here.
This should be a yes! [link removed]
The New York Times cited Israeli officials , externalas saying that the Abadan oil refinery was one of the sites targeted in its air strikes on Saturday morning. [link removed].uk/news/articles/cy7dkgz71x6o
$428.09 was bought by a beach dog, anyone knows who that is?
Then why would Polymarket still be selling Yes?
someone needs to purpose yes
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oh I'm fucked
it's iraN
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good luck proving it.
Satellite image proves it clearly tho
Don't see this going Yes in hindsight, too hard to prove even if it was contested.
Nancy sold 4k shares of YES lol, weak scammer hands
There is overwhelming consensus that they didn't hit the oil facilities, oil is down 6% today as a result
Not so overwhelming now?
I can't see minister Ben Gvir keeping his mouth shut about it
It didn't "carry a strike against an oil or gas facility" it carried a strike against a nearby defense system and maybe one silo had collateral damage but it wasn't directly targeted. "Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market." Clearly a no.
If you know Israel you know things like that no happen by error.
You see extremely precise attacks all over iran but this one missed? Everything hit within a meter of the target, it was clearly targeted
Buy more no then!
And if you think is wasn't a direct hit you don't understand how Israel is running their wars. There is always a warning shot that points to where a big bomb will arrive later.
If you think it will end in a NO, check what happened in " Israel military action against Iraq before November?" exactly the same...
Also there we had people calling for Iraqi confirmation... Now at 98...
"The New York Times cited Israeli officials as saying that the Abadan oil refinery was one of the sites targeted in its air strikes on Saturday morning. Iranian authorities confirmed on Saturday that Khuzestan province had been targeted by Israel."
This is exactly like what happened in the Israel attacked Iraq market... Look at it now. Tomorrow we will get an Israeli politician admiting it was a warning shot and we will get more satellite images. Can't hide the truth.
There is damage done to an oil facility on the nighy of the attack by israel, its a yes. Who else would damage it? My dog?
it could be a shot down rocket targetting the defense site, just like the israeli official said.
Alqam of whatever the fuck his name razor suggests it wasnt
you're betting on facts here, not speculation
it looks like people are thinking it's some kind of debris. but my gosh. from where would some kind of debri come from? lol to hit an oil tank of all places. it's crazy
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