This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has ceased all ground operations within and has withdrawn all ground forces from Gaza between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn into or behind intended buffer zones, even if that zone is established on internationally recognized Palestinian territory. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why does the graph look so strange today?
someone was buying at 40c no
Israel announces full Gaza withdrawal by December 2025 under ceasefire terms.
More ethnic cleansing once Hamas disarms...Israel will never miss this opportunity to get rid of Palestine once and for all
International peacekeeping force. Start of a new era.
LOL... fat chance they're leaving now... ceasefire lasted 4 days
Go home jew!
why the price going down? whats the update?
Hamas is slow on fullfilling the deal, small chances they will disarm
It's coming home boys.
Egyptian sources to Qatari Al-Arabi Channel: A joint European-Egyptian mechanism will temporarily manage the Palestinian side of the Rafah Crossing
"Hadashot Be'Zaman": The dismantling and evacuation of Israeli army fortifications in Gaza has begun.
"Accordingly, any continued occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor beyond the Rafah crossing (31.248486, 34.257643) will not qualify". Food for thought yestards... Bon appetit.
Under the agreed plan, Israel stays only up to Rafah, not beyond. This is regarding the third phase of the IDF withdraw, set and agreed upon at the negotiations yesterday.
2025 ends in two months... show us your source, with the relevant timetable discussed in it. I don't think you understand what your'e talking about...
I'm interested in how you interpret beyond the Rafah crossing
The corridor is a line. One edgepoint is Israel border and the other is the sea. Beyond means to the side further from Israel. If you have creative interpretations send them to Trump...
Why is the price not improving?
Some people are hodling NO. The deal is locked: after Israel's strike on Qatar, Qatar-Saudi-GCC threatened to pull $ trillions from US treasuries, unless Trump forced Israel to swallow a deal. Fin.
Time and UMA are on the YES side.
Because some people know how to use Google Maps
The deal is locked. I agree. But Israel stays on the corridor beyond Rafah crossing. Open a map bro.
The Times of Israel: "under the agreement, Israeli forces would withdraw from the Rafah crossing and its vicinity"
The deal stipulates “scheduled withdrawals” of Israeli troops and includes “guarantees from President Trump and the mediators.”
This is practically a market on if the deal gets fully implemented, meaning an Israeli withdraw into the buffer zone.
There are guarantees on the deal and it’s timetable by the Americans, Turkish and Qatari. Chances of this going no are slim
Withdraw from Philadelphi is not in the deal.
That is your interpretation... the rules say otherwise
Per the rules, “withdrawals into or behind designated buffer zones” may qualify.
"During Israel’s partial withdrawal to buffer zones in February of 2025, Israel maintained control of the Philadelphi Corridor beyond the Rafah crossing. See: [link removed] [link removed] [link removed] The rules specifically address that even if this is a buffer zone, it is still a disqualify. There is an entire paragraph on it.
What an absolutely retarded clarification, make that a seperate market.
You mean a market for people who can't read?
"Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?" to "Actually if Israel maintains a large military presence still within Gaza's border it counts as withdrawing from Gaza" sure great job Polymarket
Per the rules, “withdrawals into or behind designated buffer zones” qualify
Buffer zone can very well be 30%. Gaza is a small area.
My understanding was that no... buffer zone probably can't represent 30% of Gaza. Mostly areas near Gaza's borders no?
Gaza strip is 10 km narrow. The buffer zone in the Trump deal map is a couple of km buffer all around the border with Israel.
[link removed] Talking of this? No way it respects the conditions of this market. "approximately 1 km deep along Gaza’s borders" It goes much deeper than that right?
Every ceasefire is in steps. There is a 1st step to get the living hostages back in 72 hours and a first withdrawal. Then, end of week the remains will be returned and Israel will withdraw further.
"A second phase of the original plan called for Hamas to quickly cede control of Gaza, turning its governance over to an international trusteeship overseen by the U.S. and Arab allies. But it’s unclear if those elements of the plan have been agreed to."
It feels like the second withdrawal phase involves bigger conditions and we don't seem to have a timeline for it though.
you know how UMA works. When you need to argue to defend your position, it’s best to leave. I lost all such bets then I learned
Ok... I'm not an expert on the matter. But all the posts I read on [link removed] say: "The Gaza deal includes a complete ceasefire, a gradual withdrawal of the Israeli army from 70% of the Gaza Strip" No way will those terms allow this market to resolve as "Yes" right?
[link removed]
This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace.
israel has basically been forced to surrender to hamas by trump and qatar, we have 90 days to go to see if israel going to be removed from gaza,looks extremely likely to me.