This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon between February 17, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Big news coming soon from Lebanese government.
Al hadath sources: French mediation to have the French battalion take over the five Lebanese positions after Israel's withdrawal. [link removed]
Ortagus will visit Lebanon right after Eid to push for an agreement that will lead to the control of borders. [link removed]
This perfectly aligns with Al Hadath reports stating that Lebanon and Israel agreed to extend the ceasefire after Eid al-Fitr. which was later denied to avoid embarrassment with the Lebanese public, though it was indeed in place. [link removed]
I didn’t say it was announced. Not every agreement is made for public knowledge. Multiple sources reported that there is an agreement allowing Israel to stay for a few more weeks before withdrawing. This was reported by Axios as well. The Lebanese denied Hadath’s report to avoid embarrassment in front of their own public, as it could be perceived as treason. Irsaeil never denied or rejected such claims
That's before Axios report.
Amit segal : Israel wants to reach normalization with Lebanon
Itamar Ben Gvir : It is difficult to understand why Israel continues to offer unilateral gestures and signs an agreement that means withdrawal from five vital strategic points, which control and protect the northern communities. Maybe it's altready signed when this perticular dude said it's signed [link removed].il/news/military/article-1179383
Not the best source out there, but when he's pressuring that way, it means either it's already signed or will be signed soon, as the US is imposing its policy more aggressively now. The good news is that he's not in the government right now, so his pressure doesn’t hold much value.. plus Smotrich hasn’t said a word, so Netanyahu has nothing to be afraid of.
Based on actual events, it may happen as early as next month. Remember when Al Hadath reported an agreement between Berri and Israel to withdraw after Ramadan, and the presidency denied it? That was the actual agreement, the official announcements are just for the public
Axios also reported two weeks ago that an agreement was reached to stay a few more weeks before the withdrawal. An Israeli source said that the intention is to strengthen the position of the new president, which makes sense, as the U.S. wants to weaken Hezbollah politically. That can't happen without a withdrawal from the five points, and now there are even talks about normalization.
1 Based on the report itself , 2 there is no source confirming this claim : deployment is now scheduled for the end of 2025, and the agreement does not state that full withdrawal is contingent on the deployment of 10k Lebanese troops. otherwise the Withdrawal from other villages would not happen, 3 normalization is not required before withdrawal it makes more sense for it to follow. But , the fact that normalization is being discussed is a great sign. Also, this market concerns the five points ,not the Blue Line, which may take longer. According to Al Hadath’s reporter last month, withdrawal from 5 points may happen as early as the next month
Per the agreement the full withdrawal is not necessarily contingent on the deployment of 10k Lebanese troops And even If that’s the case, when Israel decides to be flexible in negotiations, these details don’t matter because the U.S. is forcing them to do so. But when they decide not to be, even if the Lebanese deployed a million soldiers to the south, Netanyahu would find an excuse to torpedo the deal. and even if he couldnt find any excuse he would say well i dont accept this agreement as what happened with Hamas
The U.S. will only require Israeli withdrawal at the final step of implementation. There is no basis for this one at all
*Prime Minister's Office:* Today, a quadrilateral meeting was held in Naqoura, Lebanon, with the participation of IDF representatives, and representatives from the United States, France, and Lebanon. As part of the meeting, it was agreed to establish three joint working groups aimed at stabilizing the region and that will focus on the following issues: the five points over which Israel controls southern Lebanon, discussions on the Blue Line and points that remain in dispute, and the issue of Lebanese detainees held by Israel. In coordination with the United States and as a gesture to the new Lebanese president, Israel agreed to release five Lebanese detainees.