This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon between January 23, PM ET, and February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
I thought Polymarket decided that Lebanon never invaded??
If Israel is going to stay in five points that’s for sure result as no, but she going to withdraw maybe tomorrow until the 28th she going to withdraw so don’t understand
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement There’s nothing to follow. I just don’t understand the explanation of this market. I see they’re going to withdraw but going to stay in five point
gg
GG, IDF : We are preparing to stay for a long time in the five points in Lebanon
the rules stated "regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue"
onbiously no
The report cites from security sources, stating that they are waiting for the political echelon to decide whether they will withdraw within two days or stay for another 10 days, the deadline of this market
Staying in those outposts is unsustainable and will only create more difficulties for the Lebanese government in upholding the agreement. After February 18th, the situation will not be the same if Israel has not fully withdrawn. One thing is certain: more innocent civilians will be shot or kidnapped. As Israel continues its indiscriminate violence, there will be no room for further negotiations, and the situation may revert to square one.
That would create a massive outrage among the Lebanese towards the government, leading to a loss of support in favor of Hezb, which is not in the interest of the US and France, as they want the government to gain public support to defeat Hezb politically. staying on the outposts aligns with Netanyahu's interests however, as he seeks to create more conflicts which serve his political goals that's what he does after all. This Market will be resolved based on which interest prevails. But if the reports of Israel Hayom are correct, it will definitely resolve to yes
I couldn’t agree more. This time, I trust the US won’t give this demon what he’s requesting, while other parties, like France, will push to impose stability at this critical stage.
“As Israel continues its indiscriminate violence” - Do you watch any other news than Al Jazeera? “Other parties, like France, will push to impose stability” - UNIFIL was established in 1978, France has always been a major part of it. What did they ever do to stop Hezbollah from launching rockets towards Israel? How many terrorists did they arrest? Hezbollah protestors burned UNIFIL vehicles and injured its 2nd in command just 3 days ago. Israel is not the cause of every single problem in this world, even if some blue haired they/them on Tiktok told you so
I don’t want to get into this and deviate from the main context, but to begin with, 1) UNIFIL was deployed in 1978 following the Israeli invasion, which led to the formation of the Lebanese resistance by ordinary citizens. This resistance largely dissolved after Israel’s withdrawal in 2000, whereas Hezbollah chose to remain as an armed political party, a decision WIDELY opposed within Lebanon. 2) Lebanese officials quickly condemned the attack on the UN convoy, arresting over 30 individuals and launching an investigation. However, we are still waiting for Israel to condemn itself for deliberately attacking UNIFIL multiple times, including on October 10th, 11th, and 13th 2024.
Despite reports that Israel asked to remain in some positions, no such instructions have been given to the IDF so far, and Israel is preparing for a full withdrawal. [link removed].il/news/defense/article/17371444
never bet against bibi.
[link removed]
we won.
it has been known for hours now; it actually says nothing.
[link removed]
Did you misclick No?
I wish i had more money so I could buy more yes. This is a lock
what is your conviction based on?
It is definitely a lock, but not to yes
The Israeli military is prepared to withdraw from Lebanese territory and hand over areas to the Lebanese army "within the timeline" set by a [link removed] ceasefire agreement, a senior Israeli security official said.
Merci, la France!
The same Barron’s ([link removed] article says the official did not comment on whether the withdrawal applied to the 5 outposts, and also said Hezbollah has violated the agreement multiple times.
(articles sourcing AFP).. outposts are currently under discussion and negotiations to find an alternative to Israelis in those locations. Israel is targeting Hezb violations, including yesterday night. It will most probably still strike after withdrawal
Israeli military presence in five points across southern Lebanon is directly dependant on the actions of the Lebanese government, an official in the Trump administration told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday. "Israeli presence in the five points directly bears on whether the government of Lebanon ultimately does what it has promised to do, and unlike the Biden administration, we will not be grading on a curve."
no more status quo, its a new middle east.
A source in the Trump administration told the Israeli i24NEWS: "The Israeli presence at the 5 points in southern Lebanon (meaning how long they will stay there) is directly related to the question of whether the Lebanese government will ultimately do what it promised to do."
its a new middle east,the time that arab countries can attack israel and avoid any kind of long term consequences is over.
More importantly Iran. ya3ni the days of Iranian regional heg and being able to trade blows are through ever since Israel did that exercise freely flying fighter jets over Tehran.
The U.S. Ambassador Lisa Johnson arrived in Ain El-Tineh to meet with the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, accompanied by the head of the monitoring committee, U.S. General Jasper Jevers, who came from Israel. The sole topic of discussion is Israel's request to extend its occupation of certain sites in southern Lebanon.
The French Ambassador to Lebanon, Herve Magro: We share the position of the U.S. envoy, Morgan Ortagus, on the necessity of the Israeli military forces leaving Lebanese territory by February 18.
Magro on Israel's intention to remain in the five points: The Israelis want assurances that the situation will remain calm on the border, and we believe that we should work based on these principles.
ortagus is super pro israel and was fine with israel keeping the south,this quote is funny.
and france is lying.
Hochstein was an ex-IDF, and still played the role of mediator between both parties. Ortagus is a sexy jewish pro israeli woman, but here she is playing the role of the direct neogtiator and gave her word for 18th Feb..
no, like usual, the world will throw israel under the bus, they will pretend one thing in public(saying they oppose it) but in the end the bad israel got what they wanted by force.(the truth is that was approved a long time ago)
approved behind the scene but wont publicly endorse [link removed] usual.
She is indeed a sexy Jewish pro.
never doubt the princess
Israel has officially declared that it will retain five army posts in Lebanon for the foreseeable future. [link removed]
next month market, will israel leave lebanon before may?