GeopoliticsMarkets
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
July 3114%
June 305%
April 30<1%
May 31<1%
$2,482,538 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
July 31$135K Vol.14%
2%
June 30$732K Vol.5%
1%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
everyone just gonna be using poly64 again its crazy... everyone winning this month
Israel will not withdraw until Hezbollah is disarmed, which won't happen anytime soon. There is a 0.0000001% chance Israel withdraws by July 31.
I'm pretty confident that I can get a higher ROI than 11$ on 89$ by riding "Yes" on some positive momentum.
I can definitely agree with that. Any positive news towards an agreement and people will buy YES and then you'll profit
It's almost a given that Trump will make some exaggerated claims during the next round of US-mediated peace talks between Israel and Lebanon. Going to average down until after the talks and reevaluate on the price increase or lack thereof.
*ISRAEL TROOPS WITHDREW FROM SOUTH LEBANON TOWN: AL JADEED TV
One town, the market requires ALL of them. No way.
Israel's Hayom News: Saudi Arabia holding talks with US, aiming to support the Lebanese position to prepare the ground for an Israeli withdrawal and the deployment of the Lebanese army in the area - US sources cited by the Lebanese channel "Al-Jadeed."
“Event Sources: The atmosphere of the Lebanese-Israeli talks is more positive today than yesterday, despite its difficulty”
Shhhhh don’t tell
WATCH: Israel just blew up a public high school in Marwahin, South Lebanon. Not a military base. A school.
"school".. more like a terror base.
funny you. get a life kiddo
how are you jewish and broke? pick a struggle
I will help him ;)
Hhh
Gg easy bet🇮🇱🇮🇱
More markets heree
ha ha never
Will be withdraw in a few week israel simply cannot sustain the loss of military hardware and [link removed] FPV drones are too much for them.
Wouldn't it be better for them to kick Hezb out of South Lebanon?
URGENT: Saudi Arabia reviewing offensive deterrence measures.
december markets please
if there is a permanent ceasefire between Iran/US, withdrawing forces will be a must condition. Lets see how it goes.
nope