This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel or Egypt formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with with the other by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the Israeli or Egyptian government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Our analysis suggests 15-25% for a Complete Severance of Diplomatic Ties and 55-60% for Downgrading Relations. [link removed]
Nice P/L !