This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between December 26 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.
Ceasefire on Sunday [link removed]
https://polymarket.com/event/israel-announces-ceasefire-by-thursday/israel-announces-ceasefire-by-thursday?tid=1736966744363
There will be some kind of a cease fire in the coming months to get the hostages out. But it will be short
Market rules are very scamy. 1) Ceasefire does not need to start before the deadline, 2) media consensus is enough to resolve. This means that if there is no ceasefire, neither Netanjahu nor Hamas confirm there is a ceasefire, and no ceasefire starts, there will always be plenty of news around about the ceasefire negotiations already completed, as has been the case every month in 2024 where always the ceasefire is just around the corner. Then UMA might resolve to YES jus because there is no need for ceasefire to exist, only to be mentioned in the media.
Market Hamas Israel ceasefire in 2024 had the rule that ceasefire must start before the deadline which prevented resolving the market only by handpicked fake news (which abound). Removing the only ceasefire rule which prevented manipulation is way too shady. I won't touch this.