GeopoliticsMarkets
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
June 303%
October 31<1%
December 31<1%
March 31, 2026<1%
$2,758,643 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
June 30$502K Vol.3%
5%
RulesMarket Context
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm. An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
Operational tempo suggests inflection.
So i should still hold it shouldn't i
money wont get more free than this;
No way this happens with an Iran-US war looming
Israel bombed a three-storey Palestinian residential building in Gaza City’s Al-Zeytoun neighborhood in the latest violation of the ceasefire agreement.
A joint Saudi-Turkish statement: We welcome the launch of the second phase of the "Comprehensive Peace Plan in Gaza" and the start of the sector management committee's tasks.
Hamas has announced the completion of preparations with governmental bodies in Gaza to hand over control to the internationally backed technocratic committee that will administer the strip.
What needs to happen for this to resolve to yes? The mediators have repeatedly declared that Phase II has begun
so when will it get resolved as a yes?
Since the rules specifically exclude Hamas's acceptance of disarmament as a requirement for the "Yes" resolution, Hamas's denial of those specific terms cannot be used to invalidate the agreement.
US Envoy Steve Witkoff officially announced the "commencement of the second phase" on January 14, satisfying the rule that requires the deal to be "publicly described by... mediators on their behalf as the completion of Phase 2.
What a shitshow, this should be settled already
everytime i ask any AI model always claim it's 100% YES
from how rigged this site is it will probably default to no, it would be such a show for everyone to see what this platform is about, just sports betting
You guys come here and complain this place is rigged because it doesn't let you do 95x on your money in 10 minutes with zero effort
Tell me a reason why this market is not a YES? Nobody is giving a simple reason
Because the isn't any ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel. Israel bombed Gaza today. You fail to comprehend Trump and Witkoff statements are not a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. You've been told that so many times by so many people, and even two almost unanimous UMA votes weren't enough. For the last time: This market is about a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, not about the formation of the board of peace or the negotiation teams. Just read it, or lose more money in here, just stop blaming everyone else.
Read the fine print again. You are confusing a successful truce with the market's definition of an agreement. MEDIATOR RULE: The rules explicitly state an agreement qualifies if described by mediators on their behalf. Witkoff (US Envoy) officially announced the commencement of Phase 2 on Jan 14. That satisfies the public acknowledgment criteria. EFFECTIVENESS RULE: The market resolves Yes regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Current bombings are irrelevant to whether the diplomatic agreement exists. Disarmament Exception: The rules specifically state the deal qualifies regardless of... agreements by Hamas to disarm. PROOF OF AGREEMENT: Israel and the NCAG mutually agreed to reopen Rafah on Jan 31. That is a Phase 2 operational agreement, not a unilateral statement.
You fail to comprehend Trump and Witkoff statements are not a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. You've asked, you got the answer. Do whatever you want with this.
What the hell is this? Today's the last day and it's still at a 2% chance.
There are few whales buying NO, and people is afraid of the 1% of the YES. This market is free money but the manipulation is creating fear. Get ready for the dispute this night
How or where are disputes made? This had to be resolved with "Yes".
Phase two -- which has officially started, after the recovery this week of the body of Ran Gvili, the last slain Israeli held hostage in the Strip -- calls for the day-to-day governance of Gaza to be handed from Hamas to the newly formed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, or NCAG. [link removed]
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to 'Yes,' regardless of if/when the agreement goes into [link removed]
YES
Phase II begun, rafah will be opened on sunday, if it didnt begin it wouldnt have opened, so I still do not understand how people dont see it as an obvious Yes lmao
bro why are you so slow read the rules and understand what you are betting on
all of you say read the rules like i need to read them for you, cite me what you think i didnt read and stop being slow yourself lmao
Read the rules!if you are so smart and already read the rules why yo only have 51 shares! Enlight us!
sell your no's, no ways it resolves as no with the amount of phase ii confirmations lmao.. can't be this rigged
Guys if you look at the UMA voting you'll see previous two are both 0.66% yes against 99.33% early request. I don't think the final resolution would be yes
That was before the finding of the last Israeli soldier, one of the conditions to start phase 2
where you find it?
Potential turning point for Gaza as peace plan enters second phase: UN envoy [link removed]
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
June 30 · Yes
Amount
$
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