GeopoliticsMarkets
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
June 3041%
June 7<1%
May 31<1%
$97,862 Vol.
Jun 7, 2026
June 30$3K Vol.41%
14%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Choukine in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Choukine will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Fable 5: Leaning YES, ~70%. Not a slam dunk.
This is a strong case for YES. The only wording counter argument is "reached" ... which given the rules specify municipality of Choukine which includes fields and mountains, leans towards YES.
Why is the June 7 market still active?
Can't post the links. Posted links on discord under proposal-requests.
1. Yahoo News (31 May) – "Israeli troops have reached the towns of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine" 2. Zona Integritas (31 May) – "Israeli troops reached Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine" 3. Al Jazeera (31 May) – "Israeli troops have reached the towns of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine" 4. The Levant Files (31 May) – "Troops have reached Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine on the edge of Nabatieh" 5. Official IDF Evacuation Order – @AvichayAdraee (30 May) – explicitly names Shoueikin (Choukine)
Proposed: P2 – YES The following four articles explicitly report that the Choukine position has been reached by Israeli forces. The fifth is an official evacuation order that confirms military activity in Choukine and the surrounding villages. Note also that the market rules explicitly resolve on the municipality, not just the village — which technically includes the surrounding fields and hills, well beyond the residential area of Choukine itself. On the basis of the consensus of credible reporting, which the market rules permit, this resolves YES.
ceasefire is about to kick in, israel troops back up + hezbolla has a good defence anyway, very unlikely to happen
there isnt gonna be new ceasefire until june 7
Choukine rapidement puis ce sera la porte vers Nabatieh.